The triggers for a stock market rally

These factors are very much long-term ones and may not provide much comfort in the next few months. The best triggers for a rally, as the Bank Credit Analyst remarks, would be a further fall in the oil price (below $100 would be great), a moderation in the rate of US house price deflation (not yet) and a drop in credit spreads (this has happened for non-financial companies but not, crucially, for banks). When all three are in place, there is scope for a quite vigorous stock market rally.