CML: Market recovery will continue into 2013
While activity levels remain below pre-crisis boom, they do provide a “springboard for optimism” for 2013.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders believes there are grounds for optimism that the market recovery which began this year should continue next year, reinforced in part by Funding for Lending scheme effects.
This time last year, the CML had forecast that 2012 would see 825,000 property transactions, £133bn of gross lending and £8bn of net lending. In fact, activity was stronger than the CML expected and it now expects this year to end with 930,000 transactions, £144bn of gross lending and £9bn of net lending.
While these activity levels remain far below the abnormal boom experienced before the financial crisis, they do provide a springboard for cautious optimism for 2013, the CML said.
The CML’s central forecast for 2013 is for 950,000 property transactions, £156bn of gross lending and £12bn of net lending in 2013, falling back a little in 2014 after the FLS drawdown window ends to 930,000, £150bn and £11bn respectively.
In addition, the CML said that mortgage arrears have been lower than originally forecast for 2012 and the number of repossessions is likely to end the end year at 35,000, some 10,000 lower than forecast. The CML’s central forecast is for 35,000 repossessions in 2013 and 37,000 in 2014.
Paul Smee, director general at the CML, said: “Our forecasts point towards a market that will both grow and improve in 2013. Sustainable growth will characterise the market of the future.
“We look forward to helping both lenders and policymakers stay focused on delivering a market that provides protection and flexibility to meet the needs of real consumers.”