Your IndustryFeb 12 2013

Currency wars - February 2013

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Approx.60min

    Currency wars - February 2013

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      CPD
      Approx.60min
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      Introduction

      By Jenny Lowe
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      Mr Abe has launched a series of aggressive plans to reboot Japan’s economy since winning the nation’s recent general election – and more competitive Japanese exports, achieved through a devalued yen, is chief among these.

      Stuart Thomson, chief economist at Ignis Asset Management, explains: “The yen will be allowed to weaken to ¥100 against the US dollar. Any further than this will be resisted by international competitors since it would provide Japanese corporates with too great a competitive advantage.”

      For many, these latest concerns are a result of the bouts of money printing and the build up of reserve currencies in some emerging markets. However, while China has been “artificially moderating” the strength of the renminbi, according to Fidelity’s global chief investment officer for fixed income Andrew Wells, Brazil’s real is surging.

      He adds: “Concerns are growing that this could break out into an all-out currency war; countries like Brazil are becoming vocal about their displeasure. An obvious side effect has been a surge in commodity prices. Its inflationary effects are now being imported into developed economies.”

      Clive Dennis, head of currency at Schroders, points out that the currency wars have already been in play for some years. “With little growth momentum and exhausted monetary policy, politicians in the developed markets are getting nervous for their own survival. Rules (fiscal and monetary) get bent out of shape and beggar-thy-neighbour policies rise up,” he explains.

      But it can’t be denied that a number of developed world currencies have come under increasing pressure as countries look to make their exports more appealing. According to Tristan Hanson, head of asset allocation at Ashburton, sterling has been “one of the weakest currencies so far this year”, down more than 3 per cent against the dollar and “outdone only by the Japanese yen and South African rand”. He adds: “This is perhaps one development that will have pleased most UK policymakers – lately Bank of England governor [Mervyn] King has been particularly vocal on the desirability of a lower real exchange rate as a means of rebalancing the economy”.

      When it comes to the battleground, however, Schroder economist Keith Wade suggests the euro is already looking triumphant.

      “Foreign exchange markets have drawn the conclusion that the euro is the most attractive currency and as a result the single currency has been gaining ground.”

      Jenny Lowe is features editor at Investment Adviser

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