Your IndustrySep 9 2013

Investing in growing consumer confidence - September 2013

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Approx.60min

    Investing in growing consumer confidence - September 2013

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      cisi-logo
      CPD
      Approx.60min
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      Introduction

      By Jenny Lowe
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      It was this increase in consumer spending that saw the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) upwardly revise the UK’s GDP growth to 1.2 per cent for 2013 and 1.8 per cent for 2014.

      However, Rowan Dartington Signature’s Joe Dyer says: “While any growth is preferable to no growth, the profile of the economy continues to be quite unbalanced. The UK consumer remains over-relied on for demand in the economy and in the absence of real wage growth this means less saving and subsequently less paying down of debt.”

      But Alex Wright, manager of the Fidelity UK Smaller Companies fund, suggests that if the confidence among consumers continues, it should help to keep the modest recovery going.

      “This change in sentiment is driven partly by brighter news on the overall economy but in particular by changes in government housing policies which are stimulating the market,” he says. “House prices rose for the seventh consecutive month in July, and on the back of this consumers are starting to increase their spending. If this confidence continues to build then it will help keep the modest recovery growing.”

      The FTSE All-Share has had a good start to the year, rising 13.54 per cent year to date to August 29 and according to Richard Watts, manager of the Old Mutual UK Mid Cap fund, the places to be so far this year were “financials, retailers, property, support services, travel and leisure, sectors which generate their revenues by selling to the UK consumer”.

      He adds: “The opportunities are abundant. Thomas Cook has made an astounding recovery under chief executive Harriet Green. Her strategy of simplifying and consolidating the business, raising new equity and improving the balance sheet is bringing a market-leading business back to profitability.

      “From a trough of 8p in November 2011, shares are now trading at more than 140p. Easyjet is another travel company that has seen strong performance in the past year, driven by a competitive proposition, efficient operations and a bold growth strategy.

      “A paradox of British culture is our love of our homes and our sometimes doubtful relations with the people who help us to acquire them, estate agents. As house values have started to rise again, with London especially boosted by foreign demand, the wealth effect is creeping back. A number of sectors are benefiting – housebuilders, retailers, home improvement businesses such as kitchen supplier Howdens Joinery… and estate agents.”

      There is a similar story emulating from the US as the recovery in its housing market continues to drive confidence.

      Paul Atkinson, head of North American equities at Aberdeen Asset Management, says: “The US consumer, the dominant force in the economic hierarchy accounting for roughly 70 per cent of GDP, remains confident post the improvement in personal balance sheets and signs of growth in real disposable incomes.

      “Promisingly, this uptick in confidence has occurred in spite of relatively weak GDP and mixed but improving employment data.”

      And Kevin Arenson, chief investment officer at Stenham Advisors, agrees: “There is real potential growth for the US consumer which should help support US economic growth. Growth is clearly more subdued than in other recoveries but the US continues to show strength relative to other economies.”

      Perhaps surprisingly, it is China and the emerging markets where consumer spending has taken a hit. Teera Chanpongsang, manager of Fidelity’s Emerging Asia fund, for example, has concerns about weakening consumption in Thailand.

      Mr Anderson adds: “There has been renewed concern over the growth prospects in China and with other emerging markets more broadly. PMIs have been declining and there has been a growing divergence between the official PMIs and HSBC Flash PMIs.”

      Meanwhile, Japan is enjoying more endogenous momentum and growth drivers than other countries, according to Sonja Uys, manager of the Absolute Insight fund.

      “Japan had the strongest economic growth among major economies in the first quarter with quarter-on-quarter annualised growth of 3.5 per cent.

      “The bottoming out of industrial production and domestic demand means there could be potential for upside surprises, and unless there is a bout of risk aversion, we believe significant amounts of spending could be brought forward ahead of an expected consumption tax increase in 2014,” she says.