Your IndustryApr 28 2014

Frontier Markets - April 2014

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Approx.50min

    Frontier Markets - April 2014

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      CPD
      Approx.50min
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      Introduction

      By Nyree Stewart
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      A prime example, of course, is the Ukraine. Technically, it is a frontier market and is included in the list of 26 countries covered by the MSCI Frontier Markets index, but the current situation in the country and its economic woes for some make it an uninvestable market.

      Dominic Bokor-Ingram, of Charlemagne Capital, co-portfolio adviser of the Magna New Frontiers fund, notes: “It is a frontier market and it does have a domestic stock exchange that has always been very illiquid. My feeling at the moment is you should avoid Ukraine as no one knows whether things are going to get better or worse in terms of Russian involvement, but even if Russia does back off it will take the economy a long time to recover.

      “There won’t be a functioning government until at least May 25 and even post that it will take a long time to put the right government in place and start enacting any policies that will help economic growth. Will it bounce back? Maybe, maybe not. It might end up being an uninvestable market, but certainly it is an uninvestable market for the time being.”

      To many this epitomises frontier markets: the threat of economic and social unrest, and the consequences it entails. However, as Mr Bokor-Ingram points out, not all frontier markets are the same, and one of the benefits of the sector is that its markets are uncorrelated to other markets and also to each other.

      He explains: “Frontiers is a collection of countries that have been put together by organisations such as MSCI to define a region, but actually it is a collection of very, very individual countries. So it is very difficult to talk about a headwind or a tailwind overall.

      “These countries have very low levels of correlation between them. It is really about being quite disciplined about picking those markets where you see positive reform and positive economic growth and trying to pick the right companies in those markets to invest in. People have different definitions and fund managers have completely different exposures, depending on their views of what frontier is.”

      By their nature frontier markets are developing economies and therefore the risks in investing in them are higher, but the fact they are not a homogenous group means there are opportunities to be found providing you look carefully enough.

      But even taken in a broad context, the MSCI Frontier Markets index as a whole has outperformed both the MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI North America indices in the past 12 months and for the year to date. So even for those wanting to just dip their toes in the water, there are obvious advantages for investors willing to stay the course and weather the additional risk and instability.

      Nyree Stewart is features editor at Investment Adviser

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