The argument to vote ‘No’ in the Scottish independence referendum is really quite easy.
According to the Scottish National Party’s latest figures published on its website, total public expenditure in Scotland was £65.2bn for 2012-13.
That includes schools, hospitals and paying pensioners. Total income from Scotland (including a geographical share of North Sea revenue as calculated by the SNP) was £53.1bn. That’s a whopping £12bn gap, which is currently plugged by the block grant from Westminster.
If those of us in Scotland go it alone, we’ll have to fill that gap ourselves. We know that oil sea revenue is declining (we now produce 1.4m barrels per day, down from 4.5m in 1999).
Many financial firms will leave Scotland in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote as roughly nine out of 10 of their customers are south of the border. So there will be less firms paying Scottish tax.
If there’s a ‘Yes’ vote, Scotland will go down the panCutting Trident we will only save £163m a year (SNP figures), which won’t make a dent in the £12bn shortfall. Scotland may be a comparatively rich country but that does not mean money grows on trees.
If we want to keep public spending the same we will need to raise the equivalent of an extra £4,653 in tax from every existing income taxpayer in Scotland.
If there’s a ‘Yes’ vote, Scotland will go down the pan, and may take the current economic recovery in the UK with it.
Hugo Cannon is chartered financial planner at Heritable Financial Planning
