InvestmentsMay 29 2015

Greek exit not IMF ‘baseline’ scenario

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Greek exit not IMF ‘baseline’ scenario

The IMF has stressed that it does not expect a Greek exit of the eurozone, but added should a ‘Grexit’ occur the risk of contagion in the region would depend on the response by European policymakers.

At a press briefing on Thursday, William Murray, spokesman in the IMF’s communications department, stated: “Our baseline remains, and the whole point of economic policy discussion, is the goal of continuing Greece’s active involvement in the eurozone.”

He added the IMF does not expect a ‘Grexit’ as the Greek government has made it clear it wants to stay in the eurozone and will take action to prevent it leaving.

But he acknowledged: “We do, and we’ve said, that we think that the toll on the Greek economy would be very high if it were to exit. As to the euro area, it could, obviously, have an adverse effect on confidence.

“The risk should not be underestimated, but the immediate risk of contagion to the euro area will, in the end, depend – and this is a key point, will in the end depend on the response by European policymakers.”

The comments come as Greece is in talks with its three bailout organisations, the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, on receiving more money, in spite of the fact it is scheduled to repay the IMF approximately €1.6bn in June.

The sum is currently due in three instalments next month, but the IMF yesterday confirmed Greece could be permitted to pay a single payment at the end of June through a system called ‘bundling’, which was last used in the 1980’s by Zambia.