The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential property transactions fell by 4.4 per cent between June and July, according to HM Revenue and Customs’ data, with this month’s seasonally adjusted figure 0.2 per cent higher compared with the same month last year.
The government’s UK property transactions count for last month found that there were 100,720 residential and 10,100 non-residential transactions.
The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 2.4 per cent higher than in June and 8 per cent higher than in July last year.
HMRC’s report noted that since December 2008 there has been a slow but steady upward trend in the seasonally adjusted count, while since February 2014 the number of seasonally adjusted transactions has broadly stabilised at around 100,000 per month.
Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential property transactions increased by 4.4 per cent month-on-month, while this month’s figure is 8.8 per cent higher compared with the same month last year.
The report explained that the non-residential property market has mirrored, to a large extent, the ups and downs of the residential market, with credit crunch effects from 2007 triggering a similar fall in transactions, but not to quite the same extent as in the residential market.
The trend in non-residential property transactions has been that of a generally flat seasonal cycle between September 2010 and September 2013, but since then there has been a rising trend. Unlike the residential market, there have been no temporary tax reliefs or ‘holidays’ in recent years to distort the underlying trend.
Richard Sexton, director of E.surv chartered surveyors, commented that lending levels are being bolstered by a strong remortgage sector, as buyers seek out the cheaper fixed rate deals before they start to disappear.
“This is set against a wider backdrop of rising wages, healthy house price growth and low inflation. These three variables have all contributed to strong forwards momentum, particularly among home movers and remortgagors.
He cautioned that there may be less encouraging news ahead.
“More recently, lending to borrowers with smaller deposits has started falling away, so to keep the bottom of the market engaged, a clear decision on the base rate would be useful in reassuring buyers that a rate rise will be slow and steady.”
peter.walker@ft.com
