Your IndustryJul 4 2016

Investing in Emerging Markets – July 2016

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Approx.60min

    Investing in Emerging Markets – July 2016

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      cisi-logo
      CPD
      Approx.60min
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      Introduction

      By Ellie Duncan
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      Brazil, Russia, India and China are grouped together and referred to as the Bric countries, although on the face of it these economies have little in common.

      Ed Wiltshire, fund manager in the emerging markets equities team at Aviva Investors, explains: “When the term ‘Bric’ was first coined, it was a catch-all to cover the four countries’ fast-growing developing economies that dominated their smaller regional neighbours. While their size and regional significance remain common factors, any sense they sit at the same point in their economic development has largely been discredited.

      “While the rise in commodity prices at the beginning of the super cycle in the first decade of the century obscured this, since those prices started to fall, the differences have become all too stark.”

      Erik Lueth, emerging market economist at Legal & General Investment Management, agrees: “The only thing these countries really have in common is they are the biggest emerging markets and so, once we capture what’s happening in those four, we’re capturing quite a bit of what’s happening in emerging markets.”

      The opportunity is not just better yield and better fundamentals. After major selling of the asset class, technicals are strong Jan Dehn, Ashmore

      One thing emerging markets large and small have had in common in the past year is they have fallen out of favour among UK investors who were scared off by the impact of a falling oil price, particularly on commodity-exporting countries, and the volatility at the start of this year prompted by fears over China’s economy.

      Figures from the Investment Association (IA) show the IA Global Emerging Markets sector suffered net retail sales outflows in seven of the past 12 months to April 2016. In January, the sector recorded net retail sales outflows of £56m. But the tide may be turning as April was the first month this year in which the sector clocked up positive net retail sales of £64m.

      The IA Global Emerging Markets Bond sector has attracted steady net retail sales so far this year, reaching £80m in March and £26m the following month.

      Indeed, emerging market debt (EMD) has been something of a success: both dollar-denominated and local-currency EMD are performing well and Pierre-Yves Bareau, chief investment officer, EMD at JPMorgan Asset Management, notes this is despite a lack of growth and earnings.

      He queries whether EMD is a value trap or a genuine opportunity: “Historically, a key characteristic of the ‘alpha’ offered by EMD was the growth differential between emerging and developed markets. The differential has shown nearly five years of derating and is now in stabilisation. To foresee sustainability in the current rally, investors will expect signs the trend is reversing and that emerging market growth will revert to outpacing DM.

      “Headwinds remain and economic growth is sluggish, but current account balances turning positive are a sign emerging market recoveries are under way.”

      Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore, believes a trio of factors are helping the case for investing in EMD. “The opportunity is not just better yield and better fundamentals. After major selling of the asset class, technicals are strong.”

      However, he recognises investors will be wary of coming back into EMD too early. “This makes for a more drawn-out rally, but this is probably a good thing,” he adds.

      Ellie Duncan is deputy features editor at Investment Adviser