Brexit vote uncertainty continued in July, as annual price growth slowed to 5.5 per cent, while transactions were down 20 per cent over the quarter compared to last year.
The latest house price index from estate agents Your Move & Reeds Rains did note that there’s so far consensus in the market that it’s too early to tell whether these moves are part of a long-term post-Brexit trend.
All there is at the moment in mixed signals, according to the report.
“On the one hand, house price inflation on an annual basis continues to slow: a gradual decline from February, when it was running at 8.9 per cent, has seen it fall to 5.5 per cent for the 12 months to the end of July,” the report read.
“On the other hand, last month saw the market continue its fight back following price falls in March to May: July saw a modest gain after June’s 0.5 per cent rise, with average prices up 0.2 per cent, or £700.”
Overall, this meant prices remained £3,386 below their February peak, but £15,422 above their July 2015 levels. The trend in prices remains modest, but upwards sloping, added the estate agents.
| House price | Index | Monthly change % | Annual change % | Annual % (excluding London & the SE) |
| £293,318 | 285.8 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 |
Transaction levels presented a similarly complex story.
These, too, have slowed, with levels for the second quarter 20 per cent below the same period last year. However, this has less to do with the referendum vote than the surge in activity to beat the 3 per cent stamp duty surcharge introduced in April on second homes and buy-to-let properties.
Transaction volumes have grown every month since April and are now well above February levels, while exceptional sales level in March more than compensated for the decline since.
Overall, for the first six months of each year, Your Move & Reeds Rains estimated transactions in 2016 at some 4 per cent higher than in 2015.
Director Adrian Gill commented that Brexit may well have an impact on the housing market, but it’s not showing yet.
“Even when it does, there will be positive as well as negative influences on the market, which clearly has some strong long-term drivers for continued house price inflation.”
peter.walker@ft.com
