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A government body has backed a report from the Association of British Insurers, which offers a stark warning for the future of defined benefit pensions schemes as the population ages.
According to the ABI, a five-year increase in life expectancy would mean the likelihood of a typical defined benefit scheme going bust would double from about 3 per cent to between 6 per cent and 7 per cent, while the top ups cost to its corporate sponsor should drastically rise about £12m to £13.6m.
According to the document: "It is well established that underestimating life expectancy is one of the key risks that face defined-benefit pension schemes."
It also explores likely impacts of different asset allocations and levels of top up cash from corporate sponsor companies on the cost and security of the schemes.
A spokesman for the pensions regulator said: "We cannot comment on the figures. We completely agree and that is why we have just had a consultation on longevity.
"It is a serious issue, so we are consulting at the moment to help trustees understand and make appropriate assumptions for their schemes."
The consultation was launched in February and the document states: "We propose to issue guidance outlining how trustees should go about deciding on funding assumptions for a defined benefit pension scheme. There is a special focus on mortality assumptions with some background material provided."
A Government Actuaries Department spokesman added: "We have no comment at this time."
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