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Although life offices will continue to launch platforms, advisers will abandon them for more flexible independent offerings, according to Nucleus Financial Group.
David Ferguson, chief executive of the independent wrap platform, predicted more life companies would bring propositions to market over the next 12 months.
He said:"We'll see Prudential in the market before the year is out, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Scottish Widows do something."
Prudential said it was currently in negotiations to bring its onshore and offshore wrappers onto Bankhall's platform, but did not expect to reach an agreement until 2009. But despite that, Mr Ferguson said life company wrap platforms would be less popular with advisers.
"The last thing the new model advisers want to do is go with a life company's wrap," he said. "IFAs will abandon life companies when re-registration becomes easier."
One of Mr Ferguson's chief criticisms was that life insurers charged fund management companies a fee for putting portfolios on their platforms, restricting clients' investment options.
Life offices maintained they had a strong competitive position. Mark Poulson, head of communications at Standard Life Savings, said the independent wrap platform idea complemented the life model rather than replacing it.
"We're adding more funds every week," he said. "All funds on the wrap come clean-priced. There are no funny back-end deals. However, we are able to agree great rates. Many funds are on at NAV."
Mr Poulson said it was "absolutely understandable" that an independent company might say larger companies would not make it.
"But there's space for lots of kinds of models," he said. "Other IFAs - and we have hundreds of those on our platforms - prefer to work with someone who has scale and the ability to cope in good times and bad. One of the great things about this market is there are different complementary models around."
But Mr Ferguson said independent wraps had not been constrained on capital during the current volatility. He said if Nucleus did not break even within 12 months as it was projected to, it would only require refinancing two to three years from now.
"It's hard to say whether it's the larger or smaller ones that are at risk of failing," he said. "If life companies merge, they'll merge their platforms. I don't think there are any independent platforms that are tight for capital that have to merge."
Although Mr Ferguson believes life insurers will launch more platforms, he said the market was nearing the end of its proliferation phase.
"There's no way you will see 15 platforms in three years' time."
Mr Poulson agreed not every platform would make it.
"Life companies that aren't really committed to it will stay away," he said.
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