China’s growth will not wobble

The terrible events of 12 May 2008, when a deadly earthquake struck south-west China's Sichuan province killing tens of thousands will remain with us for a lifetime.

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I was in the air when the quake struck, in transit between Hong Kong and Shanghai. I learnt later that the tremor was felt as far as Shanghai and even Taiwan. It was immediately obvious the shock felt by everyone, with collection boxes springing up everywhere. Shanghai is full of migrant workers and there was a rush by thousands to return to the impacted areas to offer help.

China is a vast, diverse country made up of many different cultures and regions – not a homogeneous society and in the past it usually took foreign invaders to unite the people in a single purpose. But this earthquake united China’s people with a desire to help each other, with donations of money, equipment and labour flooding into the region. The government also responded with staggering speed. Wen Jiabao, China’s Prime Minister, boarded a plane within 30 minutes of the earthquake and arrived at the disaster area in only two hours. He remained onsite throughout. The contrast with the delay in George Bush’s final arrival to devastated New Orleans is vivid.

Will the earthquake derail the China growth story? The answer is certainly no. The region that was mostly affected by this tragedy is relatively unpopulated by Chinese standards and not economically vital. The impact is more psychological than physical and, if anything, will entrench the widespread popularity that the central government enjoys. Estimates of approval ratings are somewhere in excess of 90 per cent, a rating that any democratic government would dream of.

Another concern is that the earthquake will add further pressure to already high inflation rates. Inflation, one of the main reasons I visited China, is currently above 8 per cent, well over the comfort zone of 5 per cent. Most of this recent inflation has come from strong rises in food prices, particularly pork. Inflationary concerns are a top priority for the government as it has such a detrimental impact on the poorer members of society. From my many meetings on the subject, it would seem that the worst is hopefully behind us. A number of factors should ensure that inflation is between 3 per cent and 5 per cent at year-end, notwithstanding any new disasters.

With inflation hopefully having already peaked, government policy over the next few months should ease, which would be a positive for the markets and both China and Taiwan are currently attractive. Closer relations with China will have a profoundly positive impact on the Taiwanese economy and one that I will be actively playing.

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