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James Syme, head of emerging market equities at Barings, said: “Factors that have given rise to the emerging market growth story to date are cyclical rather than structural. Changes are taking place that are likely to increasingly benefit domestically focused stocks.”
Mr Syme said, since the crisis in many emerging markets in the late 1990s, equity investors have placed great importance on the contribution of outsourcing and offshoring to the emerging market story, which has led investors to focus on the manufacturing export sectors and the OECD-supply chain economies.
“However, we believe it is the emerging consumer and related domestically focused industries in emerging markets that will be the key beneficiaries of rising emerging market purchasing power in the future.”
According to Barings, manufacturing wages in emerging countries have increased steadily over the last three years in US dollar terms, caused by real increases, rising inflation and strengthening currencies. This had led to an erosion of competitiveness and profitability in the export sector.
The flip side of this, Mr Syme said, is the increase in purchasing power and disposable income on the part of the emerging market consumer. He predicted emerging market currencies would rise in response to inflationary pressures, benefiting domestically focused stocks at the expense of exporters.
“This increase in purchasing power for consumers is positive for the consumer, the financial services, real estate and telecommunications sectors. Although there is a current vogue for commodities and infrastructure as themes in emerging market equity investment, there is also significant opportunity in the emerging market consumer and financial sectors.”
Robert Lockie, certified financial planner at Bloomsbury Financial Planning, said: “Investors should have diversified exposure to world economies, as they are likely to have higher growth rates than developed markets. However, I am unconvinced one can pick sectors and get it right, as events can happen out of the blue.”
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