Investors concerned in wake of South African president's departure

Mbeki's removal by deputy Zuma sends jitters through South African economy and sees rand fall by huge margin

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The South African economy is bracing itself for a period of uncertainty following the resignation of Thabo Mbeki as the country’s president.

Investors have expressed concern about the future of a hitherto steady economy under the stewardship of Mr Mbeki and his finance minister, Trevor Manuel.

Andre Roux, head of fixed income at Investec Asset Management, said: “There is a degree of uncertainty at the moment."

Mr Mbeki’s removal by his erstwhile deputy, Jacob Zuma, sent jitters through the economy, which saw the rand fall by the biggest margin in four years.

Investors’ fears have been temporarily assuaged by Mr Manuel’s agreement to stay put as the country’s finance minister in a future government.

Mr Zuma is expected to assume the presidency in the coming months after fighting corruption allegations against him.

Mr Roux said Mr Zuma had yet to clarify his economic policy.

He said: “Because of the background of the court case, he has not spent much time talking about what his policies are other than by reiterating that economic policy will not fundamentally change. At this stage, the market is not convinced he means that. We will have to wait for a period when things are smoother when he will have to show his hand.”

Mr Zuma’s challenge will be to pacify a nervous market through his selection of a future cabinet. There are concerns his future alliance partners will abandon inflation targets, with the potentially negative effect of slowing down economic growth.

According to Razia Khan, regional head of research for Africa at Standard Chartered Bank, investors expect a continuity of economic policy.

He said: “Lots will depend on the sorts of people in place. Investors will want to be reassured the new government will make a firm commitment to maintaining a business-friendly environment and pursue macro-economic stability, which are the ultimate drivers of economic growth.”

In terms of the fund management industry, Mr Roux said managers would broadly like to see a continuation of economic policy.

“The fund management industry expects a stable economy where asset prices can recover - especially in the wake of the recent financial crisis - a currency that is reasonably stable and an environment where the economy can continue to grow.”

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