US set for cyclical recovery, Henderson claims

The US is set to make a cyclical recovery later in the year and investors should use current weakness to further their buying opportunities, according to the managers of Henderson Global Investors' offshore $539m (£270m) Horizon American Equity fund.

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Nicholas Cowley and Antony Gifford, said the market had already priced in much of the bad news in the US. Although in the short term they forecast negative earnings revisions, they argued the impact of aggressive Federal Reserve cuts along with historically attractive valuations should see the market price in an improving economic outlook in late 2008.

Mr Cowley said: "The good news is the current environment is producing a number of new investment opportunities. As 2008 progresses, we expect to find more interesting ideas where valuations have reached attractive levels and growth is still achievable, even taking into account a weaker economy. We will be gradually positioning our portfolio to take advantage of an expected reacceleration in the US economy later in the year."

Areas where the managers were bullish included commodities. They said strong fundamental drivers included demand growth from fast growing economies such as China and India and a slow response from the supply side.

However, the managers remain wary of some of the direct beneficiaries of this trend. They have therefore opted for a more indirect exposure to the theme through the likes of Foster Wheeler, an engineering and construction firm that benefits from the infrastructure spending boom, and Archer Daniels Midland, a processor and distributor of agricultural commodities. 

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