'Deflation not yet left the building', Credit Suisse warns

The multi-manager team at Credit Suisse has warned investors "deflation has not yet left the building" after using a guarded strategy to rejuvenate its Multi-Manager Cautious Managed portfolio.

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Aidan Kearney, co-head of the division, said it had put together a diversified asset allocation to ride out market volatility and poor economic data, including UK equity income, global bond, absolute return and gold exposure.

The team has also taken tactical bets on the FTSE 100 to profit from market rallies.

"It's the balance that's in the portfolio that's paying off," Kearney said. "We've not taken particularly aggressive positions."

As an example, he takes the fact the fund is 14 per cent invested in cash, but also has 2 per cent in the much more volatile Nevsky Emerging Markets vehicle.

Cash positions have helped multi-managers recently when markets have fallen, while emerging markets have outperformed when equities have rallied.

Over one year to 19 January, the Multi-Manager Cautious Managed portfolio was 62nd out of 113 funds in the Cautious Managed sector, with losses of 16.2 per cent against an average of 15.2 per cent.

It is now 39th out of 116 in the peer group to 27 April, with a decline of 12 per cent compared with a 15.3 per cent average.

Its absolute return exposure includes the Threadneedle Absolute Return bond fund, up 9.4 per cent over one year, and the BlackRock UK Absolute Alpha fund, down 0.8 per cent.

Global bond positions include the Thames River Global Bond and RWC Global Convertibles funds, while UK equity income holdings include the Neptune Income and Artemis Income funds, both of whose managers have been markedly negative on the banking sector.

Kearney said he needed to see a consistent upward revision of economic data to justify more positive views on the financial crisis in his portfolios.

“Some surveys are saying affordability levels are returning to peak levels, and yet unemployment is going to 10 per cent," he said.

"Insolvency numbers in the UK are through the roof. As long as people are fearing for their jobs, the banking sector itself is going to have a number of issues.

"Deflation hasn't quite left the building yet. We've had a short-term improvement in data, but after the amount of ammunition that's been fired, you'd expect an improvement."

Partly as a result of this environment, Kearney added the Artemis Special Situations fund to the Cautious Managed portfolio earlier this year after Artemis Investment Management hired Ruth Keattch to co-manage the fund with Derek Stuart.

"The recovery plays were going into the manager's world," he said.

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