Can this famine last forever?

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I predict this famine of deals will be short lived, six months maximum, and although house prices may drop 20 per cent in the process for many it is from a figure they never, ever envisaged anyway. What do others think? Graeme C. Halloway, Positive Solutions, County Durham.

Bob Hope, BDS Mortgage Group, Fareham

Dear Graeme,

The question may also read: how long is a piece of string? It is almost impossible to put a time frame on when the famine will end as there are obvious funding issues that continue to dominate the market.

To put this issue into context recent statistics collated by eMoneyfacts show intermediaries can currently only advise on 72 per cent of the mortgage market. In addition it found just 49 per cent of deals on the market today are exclusive to intermediaries while 23 per cent are available through both intermediaries and direct business. What is certain is mortgage intermediaries need to look at diversifying their offerings and look at other sectors of the market in order to broaden their scope of financial advice.

We are all working hard to get the industry back on track in the right way. Unfortunately it remains difficult to put a time frame upon this but we must try to remain positive in the meantime. In terms of the house price correlation, and I am no expert in this field, a 20 per cent drop does sound a little high to me. Hopefully this six-month prediction is pretty close to the mark otherwise it will certainly be a long year for all those concerned.

Richard Farr, Association of Mortgage Intermediaries, London

Dear Graeme,

I would not go so far as to say this is the start of the recovery but we may have seen the beginning of the end of the liquidity crisis. There is more to come out of the woodwork but it was very encouraging to see HBoS complete the £500m residential mortgage-backed securities transaction on the back of several enquiries from interested investors.

Also, on the same day of this announcement - it appeared by extrapolation as all transactions are anonymous for three months - that £16bn of the Bank of England's special liquidity scheme was taken up in the first 10 days of its existence. This shows there is demand for the scheme and I would agree with many pundits that the initial estimate of a £50bn take up was conservative. Without too much doubt a figure nearing £200bn is easy to imagine.

Both of these facts are very encouraging and the question is how long will it take for improved sentiment in residential mortgage-backed securities and the flow of the special liquidity scheme to get into the system? The answer to this will then impact upon how far the property market falls, no-one can call this just yet with any certainty. But maybe in a few weeks it will become more apparent.

Keith Richards, Tenet Group, Leeds

Dear Graeme

If you speak to the lenders left in the market, then a lot of them are mentioning similar timescales of five to six months for business levels to increase. In terms of increasing the number of deals on offer however, there is a decreased pool of lenders in the market and they are generally using their own money, which naturally limits the amount of business they can support.

We do clearly need the liquidity crisis to lift so that lenders have increased funding at their disposal and can get more deals back into the market as well as expand product choice, particularly in areas such as new build, buy-to-let and adverse. The CML has recently suggested it may be 18 months before the funding position recovers fully and liquidity in the mortgage market returns.

In truth, no one really knows how long the current climate will persist and uncertainty does not help aid a speedy recovery. As an industry, we also need to be careful that we do not talk the market down, otherwise it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Paul Shearman, Openwork Limited, Swindon

Dear Graeme,

Predicting what is going to happen after lunch is hard enough at the moment let alone how long the famine of deals will last. I cannot see where the capacity or appetite to lend is going to come from in the short to medium-term.

My best guess at this point would be 12 to 18 months. This is particularly the case for the specialist segments, where it will take far longer before confidence returns though I suspect buy-to-let will prove more resilient than many are forecasting.You are right that few consumers ever predicted they would have the property wealth that has been created in the last decade but with this has gone increased confidence and a willingness to spend rather than save.

Any significant drop in house prices will therefore significantly undermine consumer confidence, which clearly has the potential to drive the economy further towards recession. A drop in prices to the extent you suggest would also lead to considerable problems for many lenders and make finance directors and risk committees even more conservative, thus holding back the appetite to lend. But as an industry we need to make sure we do not get dragged into the we are doomed view of the press. A relatively soft landing on house prices would do much to restore confidence.

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