Well, not quite. It’s hard to get excited about something when you know most of what is happening.
It has already been announced, for example, that working parents are being offered support through a tax-free childcare scheme worth up to £2,000 per child, per year - though the devil could be in the detail with this initiative.
The government has also already announced that the Help to Buy equity loan scheme to support low-deposit buyers of new build houses is to be extended to 2020, with £6bn of government funding being thrown into the pot taking the total for this phase of the programme to £9.5bn.
As well, we as good as know that the lower rate income tax threshold is going to be raised again - the only questions here are around what will happen to the 40 per cent ‘upper rate’ band to rebalance the books, and how strongly George Osborne will go to claim the policy as Conservative rather than a coalition compromise.
We also have a good idea that trivial commutation will be addressed, meaning the threshold below which a person can take their pension as a lump sum will be increased from the current rate of £18,000. Again, the uncertainty is simply over how low it will go.
We’ve seen widespread calls - as we do every year - for the pensions lifetime allowance to be upped or even scrapped. I suspect we’ll be lucky if it isn’t dropped again; an inflation-linked rise would be a very good result indeed.
There have also been more calls than in previous years to address the stamp duty regime to prevent market distortions created by the current ‘cliff-edge’ system, by either upping the threshold at which the 3 per cent rate applies from £250,000 to £300,000 (more likely), or more radically changing the way it works more fundamentally to make it a marginal tax (less likely).
Overall it’ll be the usual mix of tweaks to incentivise business and show support for ‘working families’, and necessary cuts in a continuing effort to tackle the deficit and plug the latest £20bn hole in the public finances.
While you are waiting for the speech, why not read our Budget predictions blog here. For all of our Budget coverage in the lead up to today, visit our In Focus: Budget 2014 page by clicking here.
Otherwise, I’ll see you here from around 12.30pm.
12.02: We might as well get started a little bit early and cover Prime Minister’s Questions. David Cameron gets started with a dual tribute to the Tories old adversary Tony Benn, and the Team GB paralympic team...
12.04: Question from the Tory benches designed to highlight 63,000 drop in unemployment - and especially youth employment. Shows the need to keep cutting deficit we are told - expect the chancellor to reference these figures again later.
12.06: After a longthy Tony Benn tribute and similar congratulations for Team GB, Ed Miliband brings up Ukraine. Both Mr Miliband and Mr Cameron agree the Crimean vote is in truth “annexation” by Russia. Mr Cameron says we must be clear that referendum was “illegal” and that “consequences must follow”.
12.08: Mr Miliband asks about sanctions; Mr Cameron states that asset freezes and travel bans will lead to further action at meeting of European Council members on Thursday. Also issues warning of particularly severe action if further annexation measures taken in wider Eastern Ukraine.
12.10: Mr Miliband asks if Russia should be “suspended” from G8. Mr Cameron promises nothing, but sounds strong notes on potentially “expelling Russia permanently” if if does not cede ground on Crimea.
12.10: After a bit of praise for income tax threshold rises, a hint from Mr Cameron that we can expect another rise later. We already knew that, though.
12.12: After a necessarily equivocal response to a question on Isreal and Palestine, we’re back to backslapping on unemployment from the Conservative benches.
12.13: Question on potential legacy issues of medication used previously in antenatal care, a question asking for measure to prevent migration within the country to south-east England. Response highlights efforts such as high-speed rail lines and other infrastructure projects.
12.16: Ed Miliband goes into a thread on mental health and particularly cuts to mental health budgets in the NHS, especially relating to younger patients. Mr Cameron responds that government has placed mental health on equal legislative footing with other conditions and has increased NHS spending overall.
12.19: Request for more help for small businesses in the Budget. Mr Cameron references employment allowance and abolition of employer national insurance contributions announced in Autumn Statement in December.
12.20: Childcare support that has already been announced described as a “pre-election bribe” as it will not come in until 2015. Asks for support now. Mr Cameron dodges the question on timing, as well he might, and gets a cheer for stating that Labour is against the policy altogether.
12.21: Apparently some Tory councils have frozen council tax and many Labour councils haven’t...
12.22: ‘Bedroom tax’ rears its heads again, but its a dispute based on council boundaries so doesn’t get a substantive response.
12.23: Back to Ukraine as a vehicle for a request to do with military equipment, then Mr Cameron is set up for a hit against previous Labour tax rises.
12.25: A point about flooding on the north-east coast, then Mr Osborne branded a ‘failure’ for not removing deficit by now as claimed when coalition came top power. Typically robust response relating to coatition successes and laying the blame for the current state of the country’s finances at Labour’s door.
12.26: ‘Manufacturing revival’ referenced in particular relation to BMW and other car companies coming back to the UK. Mr Cameron discusses rebalancing economy in favour of manufacturing and exports, which some might dispute the government is succeeding in achieving.
12.27: Question about fox-hunting, that is answered with reference to unemployment figures. The usual Budget day incongruence.
12.30: Question about cervical cancer case, before we return again to unemployment and “disappointing” figures for Bradford - and thus regional variance. Specific point raised about awareness of apprenticeships. Mr Cameron responds with need to ensure educational attainment is higher and the efforts of ‘national career service’ to highlight apprenticeships.
12.31: Labour MP has a go at government for earlier announcement to remove pay rises for NHS staff on increments. Mr Cameron bites back saying Labour ignoring unemployment successes and then suggests the opposition practices hyposcrisy on public sector pay.
12.33: Now Mr Osborne is called to the ballot box...
12.34: Amid big cheers from the government benches, Mr Osborne begins. Economy is continuing to recover - and “faster than forecast”.
12.35: Chancellor says he has never backed away from telling the British public “how it is”. Budget deficit remains among highest in Europe and further austerity measures will be announced. More also needs to be done on manufacturing and exports as Britain is “20 years behind” the rest of the world.
12.38: Office for Budget Responsibility figures: upward revision on 2014 growth to 2.7 per cent as expected. Then 2.3 per cent, 2.6 per cent in 2016 and 2017, and returns to “long-term trend” of 2.15 per cent in 2018.
12.40: Economy will be larger than at time of crisis later this year, currently growing faster than “any major developed economy in the world”. But risks remain, especially from eurozone. Mr Osborne says biggest risk at home is not sticking to austerity plan.
12.41: 1.3m more people in work, 24 per cent fall in claimant count in past year and fastest fall in youth claimant count since 1997. Unemployment now around 5 per cent - remember when Bank of England didn’t think it’d hit 7 per cent until next year?
12.43: Borrowing figures: OBR has revised down underlying deficit figures to 6.6 per cent for this year, through 5.5 per cent next year, 4.2 per cent, 2.4 per cent and reaches 0.8 per cent in 2017/2018. “Small surplus” in 2018/2019.
12.45: Borrowing figures continued: we’ll borrow less this year by £12bn (£108bn), and again have small surplus of £5bn by 2018/2019. National debt then will be 74.5 per cent and we’ll have borrowed £24bn less and paid £42bn in interest on debt.
12.46: Reconfirms 2 per cent inflation target. Some commentary this morning had cautioned against an obsession with this number.
12.48: New pound coin formerly announced. “A more resilient pound for a more resilient economy...” says Mr Osborne.
12.49: We will not “go back to square one”, so all “decisions will be paid for in this Budget”. As with every past Budget under this government - and rightly so - it’ll be book balancing and not profligacy.
12.50: Recommitment to spending ringfences for particular departments - and to the 0.7 per cent overseas aid target. Mr Osborne is proud of this latter pledge, as well he should be.
12.51: We’re going to see long-term welfare caps - only state pension and cyclical benefits excluded - and further “efficiencies” in government departments. Welfare cap will be £118bn and will rise only in line with inflation thereafter - and will be set in law. This is the “trap” for Labour our sister title the Financial Times talked about earlier today.
12.52: Cost of living inequality is now at lowest level for generations, Mr Osborne claims. Highlights tax avoidance measures - and confirms plan to force people to pay up front in HMRC tax disputes, including all caught by the General Anti-Avoidance Rule. Bring forward £4bn of tax avoidance, but will prove controversial in some quarters.
12.55: Other tax avoidance measures include a bigger budget for HMRC, measure to prevent mis-use of Venture Capital Trust and Enterprise Investment Schemes and a 15 per cent stamp duty charge for properties purchased through companies.
12.57: Mentions fixing of forex benchmarks and says he will continue to direct Libor fines to military veterans charities - and “because level of fines keep going up” there will be support for lifeboat services and cadets.
12.58: Makes jibe against Mr Miliband relating to Richard III “betraying his brother” in reference to grant to Magna Carta trust. Barrells of laughter in government benches...
13.01: Britain has to “up its gain on exports”. UK government will double amount of lending available to exporting companies to £3bn and interest rates on this cut by a third.
13.02: Also reforming air duties to mean all long-haul flights pay same rates - and introduces charge on private jets. Heading off complaints about rich Tories looking after themselves.
13.03: OBR revised down forecast tax receipts from North Sea oil. “A reminder of how precarious the finances of an independent Scotland would be.” Well, he wasn’t going to omit a pro-union message, was he? Here, here!
13.04: Package of measures to help housebuilding, including the pre-announced measure to extend Help to Buy loan scheme for new builds to 2020.
13.05: Mr Osborne is in feisty form today, stating that Labour’s announcement to build homes in Kent was “more Ebb than Fleet” as it re-announces plan to build 200,000 homes in Ebbsfleet.
13.06: New tax and borrowing powers to Welsh government for infrastructure spending - and support for flood defences and roads across Britain following the winter deluge. The usual mid-Budget tinkering.
13.07: Doubled number of apprenticeships - and support for 100,000 more, as well as “degree-level apprenticeships”.
13.08: Mr Osborne says he is determined Britain is going to “out compete” the rest of the world. Highlights previous measures on national insurance contributions and corporation tax for businesses, as well as new extension for three years of existing enterprise zones, raise in loss relief on R&D, and move to make Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme permanent.
13.10: European Commission today approved film tax credit - and government introducing similar tax incentive for theatre. Investment allowance will be doubled to £10,000, at a cost of £2bn.
13.12: Manufacturing incentives now. In an attempt to mirror work done in the US to reduce energy costs to encourage manufacturers, such as decreasing fuel duties on energy-efficient cars and package, cap on carbon price floor and extension of relief for energy-intensive companies.
13.15: Turns attention now to “hard working families”. Mentions the ‘tax-free childcare announcement, and the scrapping of looming fuel duty rise.
13.16: Some tinkering here with gambling rates - increasing and extending duties on gambling machines, but reduction in levy on bingo halls to 10 per cent.
13.17: Mr Osborne also scraps escalator for alcohol duties and - in another political move ahead of indpendence vote - exempts from inflation rises Whiskey. Also exempts west country Cider and takes another penny of a pint of beer. MPs always love that one and the cheers suggest it is no less popular this year than last.
13.19: As expected, rise in tax-free personal allowance to £10,500. Lifted 3m out of income tax altogether now, Mr Osborne says. Higher rate threshold will rise to £41,685 and by 1 per cent next year - so below inflation rise here. Mr Osborne says anyone earning up to £60,000 will still benefit.
13.22: Savings now, as Mr Osborne laments need to improve savings ratio (which OBR says is falling). Cash and stocks and shares Isas to be merged with single limit of £15,000. Wow, that’ll prove popular. Junior Isa limit raised to £4,000 a year, as well.
13.23: New ‘pensioner bond’ issued by NS&I will offer “market-leading rates” of an estimated 4 per cent on a three-year bond to help those hit by low interest rate environment.
13.27: A huge announcement on pensions here: “no caps, no drawdown limits” on pensioner access to pensions. Also free access to “face-to-face advice”, cuts to unauthorised tax rates to marginal rates, cuts in minimum income requirement for flexible drawdown to £12,000 and increase to £30,000 in pensions lump-sum.
13.27: We’ll need to pick that one apart again in the coming hours as there was a lot in that and I’ve not done it justice. Labour benches stunned.
13.28: Still reeling from pensions announcements, I just caught the end of Mr Osborne’s announcement to remove 10 per cent tax rate on savings.
13.30: After just less than an hour and a proclamation of a budget for the “savers and the makers”, Mr Osborne sits down. We usually get a surprise, but I wasn’t expecting those extensive measures to simplify pension taxes and access - I take back everything I said about it not being interesting!
13.30: We’ll leave it there for now. As we have formalities around the resolutions for some of the measures. Check back through the afternoon for full details of everything announced.
