Your IndustryMar 24 2014

Global Emerging Markets - March 2014

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Approx.60min

    Global Emerging Markets - March 2014

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      CPD
      Approx.60min
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      Introduction

      By Nyree Stewart
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      Therefore it warns that “continued sub-par economic performance for several of the major emerging market economies is likely to mean that global growth remains only moderate in the near term”.

      The sell-off in 2013, which has seen the MSCI Emerging Markets index drop 17.4 per cent in the 12 months to March 11 2014, has caused many investors to question whether any value remains in the sector.

      This combined with current political uncertainty in Ukraine and Russia, and some form of political elections scheduled in 16 emerging markets in 2014, including local elections in Turkey next week, have all weighed on sentiment.

      But as Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore, points out, for many emerging markets, in particular the ‘fragile five’, the sell-off creates a buying opportunity for investors brave enough to take the plunge.

      “None of the ‘fragile five’ are in crisis, but the market has traded them as if they have these huge problems. So the market has priced in more riskiness than there actually is, and that is precisely the definition of a trading opportunity.”

      Meanwhile China, the biggest driver in the emerging markets, and also the biggest drag on sentiment, is perhaps not in such a dire situation as people imagine.

      In its latest interim economic outlook, the OECD noted that while there is still the possibility of a sharp slowdown in China, “growth is around trend and inflation is well constrained”.

      It adds: “Monetary and macroprudential policy need to restrain credit growth, which would help address the growing vulnerability of the financial system. Further interest rate liberalisation is also called for.”

      In addition, China’s first corporate bond default earlier this month in the form of Chaori Solar Energy, can also be seen as a positive for wider investors.

      Mr Dehn explains: “The Chinese authorities recently announced the intention to allow market forces much greater sway in resource allocation. This will help Chinese bond markets – and credit markets more broadly – to move towards a fairer pricing of risk.”

      Another positive, and perhaps overlooked, feature of emerging markets is the continual evolvement in the sector. We’ve already seen tentative steps to replace Brics with Mints, and in May two new countries will be added to the MSCI Emerging Markets index – Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

      For many investors this opens up the sector and provides better access to interesting markets. With a further reclassification review scheduled for June the possibility is more Middle Eastern and African countries could be added – further diversifying the emerging market pool.

      Dan Attwood, proposition manager for retail index funds at L&G Investments, points out: “If you look back over the past 10 years, countries in the fragile five have at various points been investors’ top picks and pariahs. In fact a top-performing country one year could easily be bottom the next.

      “Changes in investment performance reflect changing local factors rather than regional ones. This makes it difficult to assess which countries will perform well year to year. Questions over the ability of emerging market economies to maintain economic growth have increased the need to focus more on macro factors and achieve diversification across a wide range of emerging markets.

      Nyree Stewart is features editor at Investment Adviser