I’m actually relieved.
Not because the Tories have won - as I’ve said before, while I was happy enough for the Conservatives to lead the next government, my preference was for another Lib Dem-tempered coalition - but because there was serious potential for me to look like a prize pillock.
It might seem selfish, but having put myself out there a month ago by committing the cardinal commentariat sin of predicting a tight election, I’m glad my forecast has come up pretty damn close.
I called a ‘late break’ for the Tories in the same vein as 1992. It did break for the Tories - and boy did it happen late. On the day, polling confirmed months of psephology in forecasting a horribly hung parliament; even exit polls had the Blue benches coming up short. In the event, the party has won a shock majority.
This is no normal election and there are a plethora of local and national factors to take into account, but there are two key trends that account for the movement in seats:
• the SNP sweeping all before them in an unprecedented landslide north of the border that makes even the huge swings achieved under Tony Blair look tame; and
• the Lib Dems being absolutely annihilated, with the Tories benefitting more than might have been thought with dozens of gains in the south-west in particular.
Claims that we had entered an era of six-party plurality in politics underestimated the public’s disdain for such arrangements.That’s not the full story, of course, and Labour will have to answer for why it not only failed to win its top target marginals against the Conservatives, but actually frequently saw negative swing. Prospective chancellor Ed Balls was the highest profile victim, losing his Morley and Outwood seat by 422 votes.
It’s too early - for me at least, I only had two hours’ sleep at most - to go into too much detail on the profound nuanced implications of the result beyond who’ll form the next government. So here are five initial top-level thoughts to get the ball rolling...
1. Cautionary coalition tale.
The Lib Dems’ demise will become a cautionary tale. Claims that we had entered an era of six-party plurality in politics underestimated the British public’s disdain for such arrangements: the smaller party was ruthlessly punished for ‘propping up’ the Tories.
The ultimate irony is that the Tories have picked up more than half of the lost seats. We clearly much prefer the linear nature of majority government and are likely to punish the minority partner for concessions made. I can’t see another making the same mistake again for some time.
2. New deal needed for Scotland.
Scotland has been ripped asunder from the UK in political representation. No UK-wide party has more than a single seat north of the border; there were swings of up to 39 per cent in one case and the huge SNP majorities could stand for generations.
The union is at risk if we blunder on with a Westminster hegemony the nationalists will claim lacks legitimacy in Scotland. A proper federalised solution with full fiscal autonomy - including the corollary £8bn budget black hole for the SNP - must now be pursued.
This should all be done slowly and carefully, however. There is no rush and a clumsy solution to the West Lothian question would make matters worse. The Tories have made positive noises on engagement in recent hours and should seek cross-party talks on a comprehensive new settlement.
3. It’s still the economy stupid.
Labour thought they could fight this election without giving a comprehensive response to their peceived economic failings. They were wrong - and the much-maligned Tory campaign strategist Lynton Crosby was right.
I’ve got into rows on this before and will steer well clear, but I will say whatever you think about the Labour record it did not either defend it well enough or own up sufficiently to errors. It also tacked well to the left and preached interventionism, a stance which hasn’t won an election since the 1970s.
4. Lib Dem future in doubt.
Will the Lib Dems exist as a party for much longer? Nothing can be certain after this result: they’ve hemorrhaged councillors, been reduced to a largely irrelevant rump in the Commons, and are now fourth in the popular vote and pegging with peripheral regional parties in terms of MPs.
Clegg has gone as leader. Most senior figures - including Danny Alexander, Vince Cable and the extremely well regarded pensions minister Steve Webb - lost their seats. I don’t see the party remaining any kind of force in politics, which is a shame for one that contributed effectively to government.
5. This majority will be anything but ‘clean’.
We may have a majority, but it’s not going to be as ‘clean’ as you might think. With only the most slender of leads the Tories will be in the pocket of their own frequently insubordinate backbenchers, who will be ready to rebel over issues such as Europe.
Hostilities were ceased during the campaign, but there are still a number of Tory MPs that have no love for Cameron and Osborne. A victory won on the back of the failings of others might not convince them otherwise.
ashley.wassall@ft.com
