Your IndustryMay 11 2015

Frontier markets - May 2015

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Approx.50min

    Frontier markets - May 2015

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      Introduction

      By Ellie Duncan
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      Such markets are probably more suitable for investors with a long-term investment horizon.

      Mona Shah, portfolio manager, Rathbone multi-asset portfolios, suggests that people should invest with at least a 10-year outlook.

      “I think [frontier markets] are definitely less liquid. I do think you have to invest with even a 10-year view in these markets because they can be so nascent,” she says.

      Over the past five years to April 22, the MSCI Frontier Markets index has risen 36.77 per cent, beating the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which gained 20.61 per cent, although both indices were some way behind the MSCI World index that rose 71.33 per cent.

      The MSCI Frontier Markets index comprises 24 countries, demonstrating the diverse composition of this asset class. Within the index, Kuwait accounts for 22.85 per cent, followed by Nigeria at 14.78 per cent and then Argentina, which accounts for 10.48 per cent. Pakistan and Kenya also have significant weightings, at 7.47 per cent and 6.68 per cent respectively.

      Sam Vecht, co-manager of the BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust, observes: “It’s not one homogenous selection of countries. In fact, it’s far less homogenous than most other asset classes. You can actually see that by the very low correlations between the markets.”

      However, he suggests that frontier markets are not as volatile as investors might assume.

      “So each of these countries is volatile but when you put them together, the result is a very low volatility mix that actually surprises lots of people,” Mr Vecht explains. “If we see, for example, renewed growth out of Europe which does seem likely, that’s clearly going to be positive for countries in frontier Europe – perhaps some of the Baltics and the Balkan countries – but it’s not going to do much for Pakistan.”

      Ms Shah agrees: “I think the idea of all emerging markets being viewed equally and all frontier markets being viewed equally is wrong. I think investors should try and drill down more into the fundamental drivers of these countries.”

      With that in mind, she says she has a bias to active managers in the frontier markets space.

      Paul Clark, Africa equities specialist at Ashburton Investments, also supports an active approach when investing in frontiers.

      “Over time I think managers certainly tend to add alpha to Africa, which is probably not the case in more developed markets,” he says.

      “It’s because there’s so much change and change is so rapid. It’s probably sensible to use active managers rather than just use passive investments.”

      So what is the outlook for frontier market countries this year?

      Mr Vecht says investors should consider these countries because of the potential for long-term cashflow growth, their cheap valuations and their relatively low correlations to western markets.

      “In fact, it’s interesting to note they haven’t yet participated in the six-year bull market that we’ve seen in the western world as people have stuck to what they know, but I think going forward the outlook for the vast majority of frontier markets looks pretty good,” he says.

      Ellie Duncan is deputy features editor at Investment Adviser

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