India appeared to have taken over China’s mantle but, with the speed of reforms under prime minister Narendra Modi failing to meet expectations, other countries could soon step into the spotlight.
Peter Sengelmann, senior portfolio manager, emerging market and Asian debt – local currency and local bonds at NN Investment Partners, points out Asia has been the global growth leader in recent years and “even while the International Monetary Fund expects it to slow to 5.4 per cent in 2015-16, this is still above the 3.1 per cent projected for the world economy”.
“Even Thailand’s military coup and Malaysia’s recent political scandal have not been as disruptive to economic activity as feared. In comparison, other emerging countries, such as Brazil and Russia, have experienced the painful effects of political instability.”
Other factors providing strong fundamentals for the region include favourable demographics, strong labour markets, and in some cases the fall in energy and commodity prices.
“Asian countries are also more resilient to external shocks as they have shored up defences over the past two decades to prevent a repeat of the Asian financial crisis. Many countries have freer exchange rates, current-account surpluses, lower external debt and stricter oversight,” Mr Sengelmann explains.
Of course there are some headwinds, with Aidan Yao, senior economist at Axa IM, noting the region’s growth model is still reliant on trade. He said, “Sluggish trade recovery is not conducive to development. While the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership and China’s One Belt, One Road may help, some Asian countries need to pursue structural reforms.”
In addition, Andrew Swan, managing director and head of Asian fundamental equities at BlackRock, suggests an imbalance in the global financial system, which is leaving little demand and too much in savings, remains a potential headwind. But there are also some positive developments.
“Young populations in India, Indonesia and the Philippines are reaching consumption sweet spots, the awareness that reform is needed but is also then being implemented and low levels of government debt, which is providing scope for fiscal boosts,” are all potential drivers, says Mr Swan.
Meanwhile, Bill Maldonado, chief investment officer Asia-Pacific at HSBC Global Asset Management, notes valuations in the region are attractive. He says current levels are comparable with those seen in previous crises, such as the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s.
“The valuation is like a distressed valuation, a similar level to that we experienced in times of financial stress, yet companies are not facing those levels of stress,” he says. “Something doesn’t add up – either we’re about to go into a period of stress or this is a real opportunity. We believe it’s an opportunity and we’re interested in it.”
Nyree Stewart is features editor at Investment Adviser