OpinionSep 14 2016

The doom and gloomers post-Brexit were wrong

twitter-iconfacebook-iconlinkedin-iconmail-iconprint-icon
Search supported by
comment-speech

There are times when I wonder how well the UK investment industry serves the public.

I do not mean customer service, but the general behaviour, the messages put out and how these affect the decisions made by investors.

In the run-up to Brexit, investment companies put out one scare story after another, with some commentators predicting the financial Armageddon if the UK voted Out.

On the eve of the vote, one respected commentator told me the FTSE 100 would fall by 1,000 points if we voted out. We voted out and the index did plummet – briefly.

On the eve of the vote one respected commentator told me the FTSE 100 would fall by 1,000 points if we voted out

There can be no disputing that the wall of negativity scared investors.

Investment Association statistics tell the story. Net retail sales were minus £3.5bn in June. Intriguingly, net institutional sales were £883m. A case of professionals’ mouths giving one message while their money told another?

July also saw net retail fund sales in negative territory of around £1bn.

More significantly, total net retail sales of equity funds over those two months were more than minus £5bn as spooked investors ran to fixed income.

As we now know, after the post-vote panic calmer heads prevailed.

The world did not end, and the stock market climbed and climbed. Those who sold missed out the best summer for several years.

Fidelity International analysed the stock market for a “Sell in May, Buy Again St Leger’s Day” piece. The figures from May to September serve just as well as an analysis of the consequences of Project Fear.

Those who stayed in the market would have seen returns of 9.41 per cent on the FTSE All Share – the best summer since 2009.

Those who listened to the doom and gloom and decided it was safer to get out of the market would have missed those returns – and many will have missed far more through selling out when the market was low.

Some will. no doubt. be sitting on this cash earning next to nothing and wondering whether or not to reinvest at today’s higher levels.

So well done to those who went out of their way to predict financial meltdown and talk the UK down in the run-up to and immediately after the referendum!

While the economy and the stock market may not have gone the way you predicted, you certainly managed to undermine the household finances of a good number of investors.

_______________________________________________________________________

Lisa’s mission is to kill off pensions

The Lifetime Isa (Lisa) looks set to launch next April as confirmed by the Savings (Government Contributions) Bill published earlier this month.

I think most of us welcome sensible tax incentives to encourage savings, but there are concerns that Lisa may further muddy already murky waters.

The Lisa should do a decent job of helping to build home deposits once some technical wrinkles are ironed out.

Age 60 seems reasonable for retirement access, along with exceptions for death or terminal illness.

But that 5 per cent penalty for early withdrawal concerns me. Divorce, child illness or education are just a few examples of when people might want to have access to savings.

However, the biggest concern must be that Lisa’s real mission is to kill off pensions.

There would appear to be little reason for a basic-rate taxpayer to favour a pension over a Lisa.

The 25 per cent top-up and tax-free access at retirement make Lisa the clear favourite.

Even a higher rate taxpayer might think twice.

Pensions might work better if they expect to be basic-rate taxpayers in retirement.

But if they expect to pay higher-rate tax in retirement then much would depend on investment growth and charges.

The predicament is that these are long-term commitments, and none of us knows what will happen to the tax regime 20 years from now.

Anyone for a spot of crystal ball gazing?

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Credit cards are best, when going to the continent

When coursing through the Swiss Alps on the amazing Glacier Express with Great Rail Journeys earlier this year, I noticed an interesting phenomenon.

When offered the option of paying in sterling or local currency on their credit card, most people chose sterling.

Well-educated and generally sensible people actually thought this offered a better deal.

So in Spain this summer, every time I was offered a choice, I noted down the sterling amount, but paid in euros on my Nationwide card.

I can report that the mark-up for choosing the supposedly “commission-free” sterling option is around 5 per cent.

Nationwide has been telling us it is better to pay in euros on its card for years – but it is good to be able to confirm it.