asset allocator header image

Asset Allocator

from Asset Allocator

Old Macdonald

Asset Allocator has long been baffled by the quantity and volume of noise surrounding the US non-farm payrolls.

And even more surprising is that some asset prices actually move in response to the data, despite the margin of error on a calculation of that size being close to infinite.

While much heat is expended to generate precious little light, far more important data points are likely happening elsewhere.

Lothar Mentel, chief investment officer at Tatton, believes the more significant event for allocators in recent weeks was the warmer tone set by Chinese premier Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. Mentel says concerns about China caused the stock market to drop by 20 per cent in October, but the revised tone means inflows are starting to return. 

A more open Chinese economy would likely have the effect of easing global supply chains and be disinflationary.

And the idea that inflation may not be as prominent in investors' thoughts in 2023 is carried on by Mentel, with reference to the UK.

He believes energy price pressures could ease in 2023, and also that inflation may turn negative in the UK next year as a result of both the supply side factors mentioned above, and the weak levels of demand already present in the economy.

But all of that doesn't necessarily make him more likely to increase his equity allocations.

He says the recent bounce in equity valuations is a function of investors believing bond yields won’t rise to the heights previously expected, but he remains of the view that such a scenario is not much more likely now than it was a month ago.

Get the story behind the stories
The daily newsletter for fund buyers