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Managers hope for market reversal after Trump-induced tumble

Managers hope for market reversal after Trump-induced tumble

Managers have questioned whether markets could replicate their post-Brexit uptick after Donald Trump's victory in the US electoral race sent risk assets plummeting.

Markets entered a phase of volatility this morning as it became apparent that the Republican candidate was closing in on the 270 seats in the US Electoral College required for victory.

European markets suffered modest falls in early trading, with the FTSE 100 down by more than 1 per cent and the likes of insurance stocks taking a hit, while a rush to gold saw share prices rise for miners of the precious metal.

US stock-index futures indicated the likelihood of significant falls when the market opens later today, while the dollar struggled against the Japanese yen.

The Mexican peso, a frequently cited barometer of Mr Trump's political fortunes during the race, tumbled by more than 10 per cent.

Many commentators have already drawn parallels with June's Brexit vote, when the triumph of a populist cause resulted in a political upset and significant market volatility.

"It's Brexit all over again. The surge in anti-establishment sentiment is definitively global. Brexit can no longer be dismissed as a freak event. It is a trend," said Eric Lonergan, a macro fund manager at M&G.

However he raised the question of a rally in the coming weeks, noting: "The immediate market reaction is predictable. Risk assets have fallen sharply, safe assets are rallying, and the dollar is falling. It's deja vu all over again. Like Brexit, will we see a reversal in asset prices in the next weeks or months?"

Fabrizio Quirighetti, chief investment officer at SYZ Asset Management, noted a downside risk of between 5 and 7 per cent for global equities this week, predicting that the S&P 500 could drop to 2,000 with other markets experiencing a decline of around 10 per cent before stabilising.

He warned that particular regions, including emerging markets, which can have high levels of US dollar debt, could be hit hardest.

"Geographically speaking, emerging market equities, especially Latin America and Asia, will be among the major losers," he said.

"Europe, especially Switzerland, and Japan may also experience severe setbacks, especially if currencies tend to get much stronger against the greenback over the next few days."

Market-watchers will now be discussing the probability of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve in December, which had been seen as likely before the electoral outcome.

"A December Fed rate hike is now less certain and it should bring at least a pause, or a temporary reversal in the ‘reflation’ trade positioning experienced since the end of the summer. US Treasury yields, as well as other top quality government bond’s yields, are expected to fall back at least 20 basis points," Mr Quirighetti said.

"Treasury inflation-protected securities are expected to underperform in this environment, as well as credit markets, as spreads may get wider."