EconomyOct 27 2016

Post-referendum GDP growth hits 0.5%

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Post-referendum GDP growth hits 0.5%

UK GDP growth stood at 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, according to an initial estimate which beat expectations of a 0.3 per cent rise.

While the figure will further ease concerns over an immediate slowdown as a result of the Brexit vote, non-services output remained weak on the quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

The ONS figures showed UK economy has now grown 2.3 per cent in the year to 30 September. The 0.5 per cent quarterly rate was higher than the 0.3 per cent seen in Q3 2015, but below the 0.7 per cent recorded in the second quarter.

It represents the first GDP data for the period since the UK's decision to leave the EU on June 23. While the referendum result initially shocked markets, leading to expectations for a wider economic impact, the ONS said the Q3 estimate was consistent with long-term trends.

The services industry - which accounts for some 80 per cent of GDP - grew 0.8 per cent but the ONS said the construction, agriculture and production and manufacturing sectors all decreased between 0.4 and 1.4 per cent.

The ONS said: "The pattern of growth continues to be broadly unaffected following the EU referendum with a strong performance in the services industries offsetting falls in other industrial groups."

However, overall growth was still dragged down by the weaker showing from non-services sectors. The production sector saw a 0.4 per cent decline in Q3, but in the second quarter saw 2.1 per cent growth. Similarly, construction's 1.4 per cent decline in Q3 compared with a 0.1 per cent decline in Q2.

Bar the services sector, all sector growth figures were also weaker than Q3 2015.

Aberdeen Asset Management fixed income manager Thomas Laskey said the despite the strong Q3 figure, the outlook for growth "remained uncertain".

"We are not out of the woods yet by any means," he said.

"Brexit has the potential to be extremely costly to the UK and the country could be poorer as a result. Growth will probably slow as import costs increase and people’s incomes fall as inflation rises."

UK inflation jumped to 1 per cent in September, also above expectations, with predictions it could reach between 3 and 5 per cent by the end of 2017.

Some commentators said the GDP figure had been supported by swift action from the Bank of England (BoE). In early August,  weeks after the June 23 referendum, the central bank unveiled an updated stimulus package in order to boost growth.

However, Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the latest GDP figures meant the BoE was unlikely to take further action next month.

"What today’s release does do is pour cold water on the chances of a further rate cut next month. In August the BoE said the majority of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members expected a further rate cut later this year, but at the time it was forecasting zero GDP growth.

"A stronger-than-expected Q3 performance is likely to mean the BoE leaves policy unchanged when it meets in November."

"The BoE may deserve some credit for acting swiftly to bolster the economy in the months after the referendum, though of course it’s impossible to predict what would have happened in the absence of any action," he added.