Talking PointNov 8 2016

Brexit success IFA positions defensively over US

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Brexit success IFA positions defensively over US

Success in positioning his clients defensively ahead of the Brexit vote has spurred adviser Colin Parkin to shelter clients against post-US election volatility.

Mr Parkin, managing director of Ample Financial Services and member of the Million-Dollar Round Table, said he has advised clients to move out of dollar holdings ahead of the US election.

He said: "We have positioned clients defensively against the outcome of the US Presidential election.

"Obviously no one knows what is going to happen on the 8th November and the polls are getting closer, but most of the fund managers I have been speaking to agree the US dollar is going to be affected, whoever wins."

He commented although the dollar had been strengthening against sterling since June's UK Referendum vote, he highlighted that the US dollar has been weakening significantly against Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

If you are investing with a long-term, balanced and consistent approach I do not think either candidate will have a dramatic effect on investments for very long.

Mr Parkin said: "We believe this is the single biggest factor that will affect the US Presidential elections and we believe that, whoever wins, the dollar will fall."

If there is a Republican win for Donald Trump, Mr Parkin said there would be a "sharp downturn" in the market, as election pledges suggest he will make a lot of changes.

However, Mr Parkin added: "If Hillary Clinton wins, the fall may be gentler but it will be more protracted. Many US equity funds will be affected and we need to keep revisiting as the year progresses through 2017.  

"Where clients have made significant profits on funds we have made decisions to run safe, a month is a long time in politics and we will have a good indication in the run up until to the 8th November and shortly afterwards.

"With heightened volatility we will see rates increase in December, and with the two candidates being the most disliked in history, it is hard to predict where it will go but I do believe the S&P 500 will fall.

"However from a client's point of view, if you are investing with a long-term, balanced and consistent approach I do not think either candidate will have a dramatic effect on investments for very long."

Earlier this year, Mr Parkin's research among fund managers and stock market patterns had led him to call the UK's vote to leave the European Union ahead of the June vote.

He advised his clients to move out of currency and daily dealing property funds to avoid the brunt of the volatility that would ensue.

At the time, he told FTAdviser: "So we informed all our clients we thought the likely scenario would be ‘Leave’ and as a result, warned that property funds and currency holdings would take the hardest hit.”

He said after the warning, most clients agreed to sell out of their property funds and currency holdings, apart from a few clients whose portfolios suited long-term investments in these asset classes.