UK inflation spikes to 29-month high

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UK inflation spikes to 29-month high

UK CPI inflation reached its highest level in two-and-a-half years in December, after a surprise rise in core prices pushed the headline level to 1.6 per cent.

The December figure is a significant jump on November's 1.2 per cent and above expectations of a rise to 1.4 per cent.

The Office for National Statistics said one of the biggest contributors to the above-trend inflation was transport costs, which accounted for more than 0.3 percentage points of December's figure. Similarly, food and beverage costs fell by less than they did in December 2015.

However, it is the sharp rise in core inflation - which strips out temporary price volatility by removing items such as food and energy - that concerned analysts. Core inflation also rose to 1.6 per cent in December ,from 1.4 per cent a month earlier, despite expectations for no change.

Input inflation, which measures the cost of supplies for manufacturers, hit 15.8 per cent, an indication of the impact of the weaker pound.

Capital Economics UK economist Scott Bowman urged calm, and suggested much of the core rise was down to air fares.

However, according to Pantheon Economics, the rise in core inflation was driven by a rebound in service sector prices, which rose by 2.5 per cent. Chief UK economist Samuel Tombs said air fares accounted for just 0.03 percentage points.

"The rise in services inflation was broad-based - inflation in the accommodation, recreational and insurance sectors all saw big increases - highlighting that domestically-generated inflation is firming up," Mr Tombs added.

But both economists said Bank of England would continue to look through the data.

Mr Tombs added: "Core goods inflation will rise in earnest soon, as retailers’ exchange rate hedges expire, forcing them to increase prices. Services inflation likely will grind higher too as firms endure big increases in minimum wages and non-wage labour costs."

2016 Inflation:

Month12-month Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
Jan 20160.3
Feb 20160.3
Mar 20160.5
Apr 20160.3
May 20160.3
Jun 20160.5
Jul 20160.6
Aug 20160.6
Sep 20161
Oct 20160.9
Nov 20161.2
Dec 20161.6

Source: Office for National Statistics