Barely a Brexit mention in the March Budget this year by "Spreadsheet Phil", although the spectre of the event loomed over the Chancellor's statement.
Brexit's effect on the UK market - its profitability, trade, tax agreements, sustainability and self-sufficiency - permeated the predictions of the Office for Budget Responsibility, on which were based many of the measures set out by Philip Hammond.
Giving a rare nod to the B-word, while describing a Budget that would work for Brexit Britain, Mr Hammond said: "As we start our negotiations to leave the European Union, this Budget takes forward our plan to prepare Britain for a brighter future. It provides a strong and stable platform for those negotiations."
Yet despite the positive overtones, there is still uncertainty about the fiscal objectives Mr Hammond outlined.
Even the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) had to preface its 235-page Economic and Fiscal Outlook (March 2017) document with the fact it was making impossible predictions.
It stated: "Parliament requires us to produce our forecasts on the basis of stated Government policy, but not necessarily assuming that particular objectives are achieved.
"With the negotiations over the UK’s exit from the EU yet even to commence, this is far from straightforward."
There is also considerable uncertainty about the economic and fiscal implications of different outcomes, even if they could be predicted. Office for Budget Responsibility"The government has now set out some of its objectives for the UK after EU exit at greater length, but there is no meaningful basis for predicting the precise end-point of the negotiations as a basis for our forecast.
"There is also considerable uncertainty about the economic and fiscal implications of different outcomes, even if they could be predicted."
Even considering this uncertainty, the prospects for the UK economy look good. According to the OBR, GDP growth is higher than anticipated, with borrowing down significantly. It upgraded its 2017 UK growth forecast from 1.4 per cent to 2 per cent, as Figure 1 shows.
Figure 1: Growth and Borrowing at-a-glance
In fact, the OBR has revised its growth estimates significantly since last November's Autumn Statement, with GDP up.
This, according to the OBR, was largely led by high consumer spending thanks to 2016's more benign inflation environment, as Figure 2 shows.
Figure 2: Revised predictions for UK GDP
However, with the Bank of England estimating that inflation could hit 2.8 per cent by the end of the year - perhaps even as high as 3 per cent, some commentators are concerned that this rosy prospect for the economy could start to unravel, especially when the full instructions for Britain's post-Brexit economic machinery are published.
Rosie Bullard, investment manager for James Hambro & Partners, comments: "Inflation figures might come as a shock to some people. Inflation is set to grow to 2.4 per cent this year, exceeding the 2.2 per cent National Savings & Investment bond holders will be able to receive soon on deposits of up to £3,000.
"The Budget was a reminder of the need to protect client assets not just from volatile markets, but also the erosive effect of inflation."
Not all are disappointed. Mike Amey, head of sterling portfolio management for Pimco UK, praises the Chancellor for holding back spending and reining in taxes to boost the coffers of the Exchequer.
He says: "Rather than opting for looser fiscal policy, the Chancellor has continued with the plans set out last November, retaining a tight lid on spending and bringing the deficit down to a point whereby he would have the flexibility to raise spending later should the economy slow more than expected.
"While the Chancellor may have avoided making even one reference to Brexit during his one-hour speech, this budget was clearly set with those negotiations in mind.
"The UK is about to enter a period of potential uncertainty, and the greatest gift the Chancellor can provide to the government is economic protection. By holding back spending today, that is precisely what he is aiming to do."
Market reaction
UK markets did not seem overly concerned about the economic impact to come, but did seem to like the positive growth tone with which Mr Hammond began his Budget speech.
The FTSE 100 sulked slightly during his speech and by the end of the day it had lost just 0.06 per cent, or 4 points, at 7,335. The FTSE 250 - often considered a bellwether of the UK economy, given it has a higher proportion of domestic companies than the blue-chip index has - finished up 0.24 per cent at 18,931.
Gilt yields rose over the day as some investors were anticipating a greater reduction in borrowing.
Sterling seemed to stir, as Rosie Bullard, investment manager for James Hambro & Partners, comments: "From a market perspective, the pound hit a seven-week low against the USD just before the Budget, but rallied while Mr Hammond spoke.
"Perhaps the international community approves of some parts – particularly, I suspect, the comments on debt control."
Mr Hammond's plan is not to borrow more but to continue reducing Britain's debt, from the current 87 per cent of GDP to sub-80 per cent by 2022.
Ms Bullard adds: "There was more confirmation on how the £23bn infrastructure budget will be spent, with some directed towards education and also to core infrastructure, including telecoms and roads. The latter is likely to have a direct beneficial impact on some of the companies we own."
The investment case
Chris Leyland, deputy chief Investment officer at True Potential Investments, comments: "We believe any news surrounding Brexit will likely be the main driver of UK stock markets, although the UK will continue to be influenced by various overseas factors.
“The key for investors here is not to be invested in one area, but to use diversification to reduce risk."
simoney.kyriakou@ft.com
