EquitiesApr 28 2017

UK GDP growth falls back as inflation bites

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UK GDP growth falls back as inflation bites

UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth slumped to an estimated 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, the slowest rate in a year, as higher prices took their toll.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the slower growth - which marked a fall from 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter, and the weakest level since the opening quarter of 2016 - was mainly due to a services sector that stuttered due to higher inflation.

The sector grew by 0.3 per cent, down from 0.8 per cent in the final quarter of 2016.

The ONS added: "The main contributor to the slowdown in services was the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector, which decreased by 0.5 per cent, contributing negative 0.07 percentage points to quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.

"Retail trade and accommodation services were the main contributors to the negative growth in this sector. These industries were impacted by increases in prices."

Economists had expected the overall figure to come in at 0.4 per cent.

Shilen Shah, a bond strategist for Investec Wealth & Investment, added: "The first reading of the quarter’s GDP confirms that the UK economy is decelerating with some indications that consumer-exposed sectors are feeling the strain of a weaker consumer spending backdrop.

“Looking forward, a tepid consumer backdrop due to a weak wage growth profile and higher inflation is likely to put further pressure on consumer-focused parts of the economy.”

Other commentators remained more upbeat. Ruth Gregory, of Capital Economics, predicted a slowdown in the economy would not be "too severe".

"The forward-looking indicators of the business surveys suggest that a decent amount of momentum has carried through into Q2," she explained.

"What’s more, resilient consumer confidence figures offer support to our view that fairly strong employment growth, upbeat sentiment and loose monetary conditions should ensure that spending growth moderates, rather than collapses."