Kames CapitalJan 18 2018

Kames' Snowden bemoans the lure of passives

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Kames' Snowden bemoans the lure of passives
ByEllie Duncan

Instead, he predicted they would be "looking at a low-yielding environment for a long time".

But John McNeill, head of rates, fixed income at Kames, believed volatility would be more of an issue in 2018, after the record low levels of volatility seen in equity markets in 2017.

Although he admitted it was still "an environment where central banks are volatility crushers".

Mr McNeill discussed the enormous expansion in central banks' balance sheets and highlighted the trend for banks easing "quickly and aggressively" but when they tighten they "tighten by less".

He said: "When the Fed eases in a downturn, they ease by 5 per cent."

However, he noted it was possible by the time there is another downturn in markets, whether that was 18 months or two years away, the Federal Reserve would not have 5 per cent to ease with.

He said: "In this [economic] cycle, it is unlikely the Fed funds rate gets to 3 per cent."