BrexitMar 9 2018

Managers reveal picks for what will weather Brexit storm

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Managers reveal picks for what will weather Brexit storm

Simon Gergel, who runs the £671m Merchants investment trust, has revealed the sectors he is buying for protection from the coming wave of political uncertainty.

Mr Gergel said the UK stock market is cheap compared to other markets right now.

The fund manager said: "In the past when there was political uncertainty, people looked at which companies will be affected, but this time, with Brexit, they are looking at the whole market, and selling it.

"That is why UK shares are cheap right now, people are selling every UK share they have, including the good ones.

"This is because passive funds and also momentum type investment strategies are more popular now than in the past, and they sell when something is falling."

He said oil, mining, pharmaceuticals and many global consumer goods companies form a significant part of the UK market, but actually operate in other markets, so these will not be impacted by Brexit to the extent the market is implying right now.

Mr Gergel said in the event of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal being agreed, the UK would revert to trading on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

He said the consequent fall in the value of sterling would, for many companies, outweigh the tariff, and actually push down the cost of UK exports.

Mr Gergel sees particular value in the shares of large UK property companies.

He cited Land Securities, a FTSE 100 property company as being a share he thinks is particularly good value for UK equity income investors right now.

Mr Gergel said the UK property sector is out of favour because of fears about the economy that the shares trade at below the value of the buildings owned by the companies.

But Mr Gergel said when the companies actually sell the buildings, the prices achieved are greater than the value of the buildings held in the accounts of the property companies, yet the share prices of the property companies imply the prices achieved will be less than the value of the properties held in the accounts.

This is a point that has also been made by Invesco Perpetual fund manager Mark Barnett, another investor with significant exposure to the property sector.

Mr Gergel is also invested in Greene King, a pub company, and Bovis Homes, a house builder, companies that generate their revenue within the UK and have seen stark share price falls.

The final area highlighted by Mr Gergel are utility companies.

He said it is the proposal of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn to nationalise such companies.

Mr Gergel said the share prices of such companies are already priced as if Mr Corbyn will become prime minister and implement the policy, but he said there are many things which have to happen for that scenario to play out, while the shares are so cheap right now that little cash would be lost by investors, making the shares worth the risk.

Mr Gergel's trust has a yield of 5.2 per cent.

Alex Wright, who runs the £3.3bn Fidelity Special Situations fund, said it may be "wishful thinking" for the UK's negotiations with the European Union to proceed in an orderly fashion.

Instead he expects volatility to continue to be high.

He believes the best opportunity in the UK market right now is among the banks.

He said this is because the regulatory environment has changed dramatically in recent years in a way that the market has not appreciated, creating an opportunity for investors.

Jonathan Davis, who runs Jonathan Davis Wealth Management in Hertford, said Brexit is not part of his investment thinking.

david.thorpe@ft.com