Coming at a time when central banks around the world, most notably in the US, are starting to ease their foot off the accelerator, tighter liquidity could make it difficult for equity markets to make meaningful gains.
Reasons to be cheerful?
But it is not all doom and gloom for the region. There are already signs that tightening is being scaled back in response to the trade dispute. And currency differences, as well as a more mature set of companies, mean the Hang Seng has fallen just 3.8 per cent in sterling terms over the past six months compared with a 17.2 per cent fall for the Shanghai Composite.
As mentioned, it is this Hong Kong index that is home to many of the China-focused investments made by Asia ex Japan funds. But it is far from the only option. Some Chinese shares, such as web portal Alibaba, are accessed via their listings in the US.
Other major companies in the region are listed in Taiwan.
It is not just about Chinese firms, however. South Korea accounts for 13 per cent of the benchmark, with Samsung alone representing around 3.5 per cent of the index.
Tech leading the way
One other thing that tends to unite these shares is a focus on technology.
Tencent, the largest stock in the index and now the fifth-largest company in the world by market value, runs hugely popular Chinese instant messaging and video-streaming services, among other strings to its bow. Active managers focusing on Asia-Pacific are typically overweight the company.
As a sector, tech now accounts for a quarter of the typical Asia-Pacific ex Japan equity benchmark. Beijing may have been priming the pumps, but the rapid growth of this kind of company has played a big part in boosting returns, too.
As long as this continues, this part of the Chinese market is likely to perform as well as the similarly tech-heavy US equity benchmarks.
Further evidence that these funds are not too far removed from more mainstream prospects can be found by looking at the top 10 holdings of FTSE 100-listed investment trust Scottish Mortgage. Tencent, Alibaba, and Chinese search engine Baidu account for almost 20 per cent of the portfolio.
There are more conventional businesses within the Asia-Pacific indices. Australia makes up 18 per cent of the typical index, and the top end of the country’s equity market is now dominated by banks rather than resources companies. India, meanwhile, accounts for just 9 per cent but has long been a favourite hunting ground for active managers.
