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RL's Greetham on assets to own after hard Brexit

RL's Greetham on assets to own after hard Brexit

Trevor Greetham, who runs a range of multi-asset funds at Royal London, has revealed the assets he will buy if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

Mr Greetham said should the UK part from the bloc next March without a deal he would buy UK government bonds.

He said: "Brexit is a very special kind of risk, unusual as a risk. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal in place, then I think gilts, UK government bonds, are a buy.

"I think sterling will be falling which is usually bad for gilts, but they are a risk off asset class and should do well if there is a no deal. I also think the fall in sterling will mean that overseas equities will perform better."

Mr Greetham said current market turmoil was the result of "stagflation" gripping the global economy, with inflation rising and growth falling, but he expected this trend to become more muted in 2019 as higher interest rates push inflation down.

Mr Greetham also said the current turmoil was reminiscent of 1987 which had led to a sell-off in equites, and that the appropriate action was to buy shares now, which he is doing in the funds he runs.

Should an agreement  with the EU be reached, he expects commercial property and UK domestically focused shares to perform well.

Mark Williams, who runs the £99m Liontrust Asian Income fund, said he thinks the current policy of higher interest rates was positive for the global economy and, when realised, would lead to investors taking more risk, in turn boosting equity markets.

Elsewhere there has been concern about the state of the UK economy without a deal with the EU. BoE governor Mark Carney said in September that under a no-deal Brexit UK house prices would crash, while GDP would decline and unemployment rise, with the Bank of England powerless to intervene.

Philip Milton, who runs PJ Milton and Sons, an advice firm in Devon, said: "Whilst many want to peddle gloom regardless, others have to look through the present and take sensible decisions, especially when the opportunity is exaggerated by others’ fear or simple procrastination.  

"They also no doubt realise that expensive dollars buy many cheap pounds at the moment and that perhaps in five years things will be somewhat different."

david.thorpe@ft.com