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US election likely good news for emerging markets

US election likely good news for emerging markets

The election result in the US, in which the Democrat Party gained control of the House of Representatives, is likely to be negative for US equities and positive for emerging markets, according to a range of analysts.

Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, said the result was likely to be the "harbinger" of the end of the Trump equity market rally, as the president would find it much more difficult to get future tax cuts implemented.

With tax cuts having helped drive the more recent stages of the strong equity market performance, the absence of a further stimulus of that kind was likely to restrain equity market returns, she said.

The US dollar weakened against other currencies this morning, as the market reacted to the idea that the election result would mean less in the way of economic stimulus from the US government.

That would slow the rate of growth in the US economy, which would reduce the need for interest rates to rise, which would dent the capacity for the US dollar to grow.

But the weakness of the US dollar has had an impact on the FTSE 100, with mining stocks performing well.

This is because all commodities are traded in dollars, so a weaker dollar effectively makes the products of mining companies cheaper, which might be expected to mean those companies can sell more product.

Richard Buxton, who runs the £2bn Merian UK Alpha fund, said: "Democrats winning the House is likely to mean slightly less fiscal stimulus going forward.

"The bond market may take that well because the Federal Reserve will have less work to do. That would be good news for emerging markets – with fewer rate rises ahead and a dollar that’s not so strong."

Richard Larner, head of research at Brooks Macdonald, agreed the weakness of the dollar will help emerging markets.

He said: "Emerging market equities have lost 0.81 per cent over the past year, according to MSCI, compared with a gain of 9.77 per cent for the MSCI All Country World Index in the same time period.

"A strong dollar typically hurts emerging markets because many companies and countries in those regions have to borrow in dollars, so a rise in the value of the dollar pushes the cost of debt repayment higher.

"A rise in the value of the dollar usually happens when US bond yields are rising, and as yields rise, investors feel they have less need to take extra risks in emerging markets when they can simply buy US bonds."

Jason Hollands, managing director for business development at wealth manager Tilney, meanwhile, said the next phase of growth could come from a wave of infrastructure investment from Mr Trump, which he might have struggled to get his own party to support, but which might be backed by the Democrats.

Ben Yearsley, director at Shore Financial Planning, said: "Infrastructure spending of whatever colour will provide an economic boost to the US.

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