InvestmentsDec 3 2018

Emerging markets top performance charts

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Emerging markets top performance charts

Investors in emerging market assets, who have endured a torrid 2018, received some reward in November as the asset class topped the performance charts.

Data from FE Analytics showed the top performing market in November was the Hang Seng Index of shares listed in Hong Kong, which returned 4.4 per cent in the month.

The broader MSCI Emerging Markets index returned 1.6 per cent, roughly four times the return of the MSCI All Country World Index in the period.

The best performing developed market index was the Topix in Japan, which returned 2.1 per cent.

Meanwhile all of the various UK indices produced a negative return during the month, while the US market produced a positive return of 0.6 per cent.

The bright month for emerging markets hardly compensates investors for the year they have endured with the asset class, however.

The MSCI Emerging Markets index has lost 12 per cent so far in 2018, compared with a negative return of 0.5 per cent for the All Country World Index.

Ben Yearsley, director at Shore Capital, said: "After recent falls had left emerging markets looking cheap on many metrics, at some point the risk hungry investor was going to come back in.

"It appears that the sharp fall in the price of oil could be the catalyst, especially for the likes of India. For long term investors who can ride out the uncertainty today’s valuations are attractive."

In terms of individual funds, the best performer was Baillie Gifford Japanese Smaller Companies, which returned 11 per cent, with the next best performers being funds focused on Indian equities.

The worst performing fund in November was the £2bn Merian UK Mid Cap fund, managed by Richard Watts. The fund has a very strong long-term track record, but lost 9 per cent in November.

The Merian Small Cap fund, and Woodford Income Focus fund, were other well established mandates to endure a tough November.

Mr Yearsley said: "India was the standout performer occupying four of the top five positions. It is no surprise to see India doing well as the oil price fell from $73 (£57) at the start of November to close at just under $59 (£46) by the month end.

"India is a massive net importer of oil, so a falling price helps fight inflation and goes straight into the pockets of the Indian consumer."

Andrew Bell, chief executive of the Witan Investment trust, a global fund of funds, said: "There is an enhanced risk premium covering UK equities, especially those exposed to the domestic economy, for reasons that are obvious.

"This is unlikely to dissipate until the issue of Brexit is resolved along the lines of either the current deal or possibly a second referendum, which markets (and most of the rest of us) would view as a way of making a decision that the divided parties in the House of Commons can’t seem to make.

"The UK equity market generally does look lowly valued but moving from the international earners to the domestic involves taking a long term or slightly hopeful view of the value on offer and may not give early gratification. Very event dependent but a lot of bad news is baked in."

He added: "Emerging markets have been under a cloud because of strength in the dollar and a rise in dollar interest rates. This looks to be largely in prices, with the Fed showing early signs of sensitivity to global growth and the dollar’s strength featuring as a grumble in a number of US earnings reports.

"Valuations in EM are unusually low and they should do well as dollar worries fade, especially those which are consumers of oil, where recent price weakness helps on the inflation and the demand fronts. Similar arguments apply to the Asian growth economies."

david.thorpe@ft.com