InvestmentsJan 9 2019

Woodford points to 'growing evidence' he is right on Brexit

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Woodford points to 'growing evidence' he is right on Brexit

In his latest update to investors out today (January 9), Mr Woodford spoke of a strong labour market, which was a sign the economy was improving.

He wrote: "We are consistently seeing macro data that reflects the underlying strength of the UK economy.

"The UK labour market continues to improve and that, more than any other single issue, is the most important determinant of the more upbeat view I continue to hold about the outlook for the domestic economy."

He added: "Although the UK stock market has remained preoccupied by the ebbs and flows of the Brexit debate, the UK economy has continued to produce strong data.

"Towards the end of 2018, we have seen further positive numbers on wage growth and employment, backed up by more good news on inflation.

"With the lowest unemployment since the 1970s, strong growth in employment and hours worked, combined with the fastest real wage growth since the financial crisis, we enter 2019 with strong economic momentum in the UK."

Meanwhile, the rest of the world economy was looking less robust, according to Mr Woodford.

He said: "China is very visibly slowing, emerging economies continue to struggle with dollar strength and higher dollar borrowing costs, and Europe has slowed significantly.

"The weak oil price that was evident in the final months of 2018 is, from our perspective a reflection of this backdrop, with much weaker demand growth than the consensus had expected, as well as more robust supply growth."

He said the US economy was visibly strong but the waning influence of fiscal stimulus and lagged effects of tighter monetary policy were beginning to challenge policymakers and financial markets.

"Bond investors appear to be pricing in a much more challenging economic environment and the correction that appears to have started in the equity market is another warning of more troubling times ahead," he added.

Mr Woodford said he expected the investment backdrop to look "very different" to the one that has prevailed for the last two years.

"And it is an environment for which I am very confident that the Woodford funds are positioned appropriately," he wrote.

He added: "There is a growing body of evidence to support my view of the world, highlighting the risks that exist in many parts of the market, and the long-term opportunity that our strategy is looking to exploit."

Mr Woodford’s flagship Equity Income fund has lost 4 per cent since Brexit day in June 2016, while the average fund in the IA UK All Companies sector gained 21 per cent.

But he believes Brexit will be similar in effect to the millennium bug of the year 1999, when the world was concerned about the impact of the change of date on computers, and then nothing happened. 

In his view the divergence happened because fund managers have focused on international earnings companies on the UK stock market.

But with the global economy now in turmoil, and, in his view, the UK economy performing strongly, the domestically focused companies in which he is invested will start to outperform the international businesses owned by his rivals, according to Mr Woodford.

Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management, has a different view of the health of the UK economy, however.

She said: "The economic outlook is gloomy. While wage growth is improving there are concerns that consumer spending may be slowing. Recent shocks from retail sales figures, notably Asos, suggest that uncertainty may be affecting consumers beyond just the high street.  

"Growth in 2019 set to be the weakest since the 2009 recession and the looming uncertainty of Brexit showing little sign of shifting."

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, who was found by a national newspaper to have had the best record of forecasting the direction of the UK economy in 2018, said economic growth had "slowed sharply" in the final quarter of 2018.

But Mr Woodford wrote: "I don’t feel the need to form specific forecasts for things like inflation, GDP growth and unemployment – but I do try to form a clear understanding of their likely direction of travel.

"Again, there is an opportunity to take advantage of differences between my own expectations and those that are implied in market valuations.

"It’s about trying to understand what’s priced in to the market’s expectations and exploiting situations where the consensus has, for a variety of potential reasons (in my view, for example, markets are neither rational or disciplined most of the time), got things wrong."

david.thorpe@ft.com