Investments 

Guide to the outlook for 2019

  • Describe how equity markets are likely to perform in 2019 and how advisers can help clients ride out political noise.
  • Identify how clients should be positioned in fixed income this year.
  • List the predictions for how the macroeconomic picture will look in 2019.
CPD
Approx.60min
Guide to the outlook for 2019

Introduction

The volatility seen in stock markets at the end of 2018 may well be an indicator of what is to come in 2019.

While making investment predictions is never easy, and certainly advisers' clients should not be swayed from their long-term investment approach, it can be helpful to take stock of the previous year in equity markets and fixed income in order to better position for the next 12 months and longer.

Chris Godding, chief investment officer at Tilney, says: "The postscript to 2018 is that politics has played a significant part in making this year difficult to navigate successfully.

"A majority of risk assets have produced negative returns with the turning point clearly centred on trade and the determination of the [President Donald] Trump administration to reduce the trade deficit via a protectionist agenda."

As investors anticipate continued volatility in 2019, where are the best places to make returns from stocks and shares? This guide will look at where next for equity markets this year and asks, with political uncertainty likely to rumble on, how can advisers protect clients when the economic outlook is impossible to predict? 

The guide also looks at what the year ahead holds for fixed income investors, given that monetary policy normalisation is well under way. Finally, why is the word 'recession' being used and what does this mean for the macroeconomic picture in 2019?

This guide qualifies for an indicative 60 minutes' worth of CPD.

Contributors to this guide: Neil Robson, head of global equities at Columbia Threadneedle; Kate Moore, chief equity strategist at BlackRock; Stephen Dover, head of equities at Franklin Templeton; Andrew Benito, senior European economist at Goldman Sachs; Sue Noffke, UK equities fund manager at Schroders; Mark Whitehead, head of income at Martin Currie; Keith Wade, chief economist and strategist at Schroders; Scott Gallacher, a director and chartered financial planner at Rowley Turton; Philip Hanley, independent financial adviser and director at Philip James Financial Services; Alan Chan, director at IFS Wealth & Pensions; Andrew Bell, chief executive of Witan; Zehrid Osmani, portfolio manager of the Martin Currie Global Portfolio; Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM; Andrew Jackson, head of fixed income at Hermes Investment Management; Simon Gergel, portfolio manager of Merchants; Bob Jolly, head of global macro strategy at Schroders; David Riley, chief investment strategist at BlueBay Asset Management; Jan Dehn, global head of research at Ashmore; Mark Holman, portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management; Adrian Hilton, head of global rates and currency at Columbia Threadneedle; Chris Godding, chief investment officer at Tilney; MSCI; Tilney; Charles Schwab; Bank of England.

Joe McGrath, Marcel Le Gouais and Jenny Turton are freelance financial journalists

In this guide

CPD
Approx.60min

Please answer the six multiple choice questions below in order to bank your CPD. Multiple attempts are available until all questions are correctly answered.

  1. Which regional equity market is described as having the "upper hand" in 2018?

  2. How does Mr Dover describe Latin America, following the election of Brazil's new president?

  3. According to Mr Chan, volatility will have the greatest effect on which types of clients?

  4. Mr Hilton makes the following statement: "Given that we think we have seen the best of US growth, our bias is towards lower yields over the course of 2019." True or false?

  5. European credit looks set to outperform US credit in 2019, with three factors contributing to the robust economic outlook in the eurozone. But which is not one of the three?

  6. Mr Wade says he is looking for how many rate rises by the Bank of England in 2019?

Nearly There…

You have successfully answered all the questions correctly, well done!

You should now know…

  • Describe how equity markets are likely to perform in 2019 and how advisers can help clients ride out political noise.
  • Identify how clients should be positioned in fixed income this year.
  • List the predictions for how the macroeconomic picture will look in 2019.

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