Investments  

Carney expects global growth to pick up

Mr Carney said in the absence of a further deterioration from the Chinese economy or from what he sees as the political risks of populism, he expects the global economy to grow at about trend level this year and next. The Bank of England calculate trend level to be 3.5 per cent.

David Scott, an adviser at Andrews Gwynne in Leeds, believes a recession will happen, whether it is in 2019 or 2020.

He said: "At some point, the world will have a recession exacerbated by extraordinarily high corporate debt.

"Just like subprime mortgage debt triggered the last recession, corporate debt will trigger likely the next one.

"This corporate debt will precipitate a liquidity crisis and create havoc in all sorts of 'unrelated' markets.

"Investors will learn, once again, that all asset classes are globally correlated in a crisis. There will be few places to hide, but there will be some which will rise in value, some significantly."

Mr Scott believes the difference to last time will be the speed of recovery.

He said: "Recovery from the Great Recession was the slowest on record. The next recovery will be even slower.  

"Debt that is not self-funding is future consumption brought forward. We are currently enjoying consumption and growth that cannot happen in the future.

"Bad debt is a drag on future growth, and the amount of debt the world now has will be a monster drag on future growth."

david.thorpe@ft.com