Tony HazellDec 14 2016

2016: the year it all went wrong

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2016 will go down as the year when the experts got it wrong again and again and again. Yet to the very end they won’t admit it.

Instead their attitude is: “Just you wait, we’ll be right – eventually.” It is rather like those who predict a stock market correction every year and when one eventually comes, say “I told you so”,  completely ignoring the fact that they may have dissuaded investors from enjoying years of growth and income in the meantime.

It now seems likely Britain will have the fastest growing economy in the G7 this year. 

Building Society Nationwide reported that mortgage approvals increased in October and new buyer inquiries had increased modestly.

As I write this, the FTSE 100 is up 7 per cent over the year and would, in addition, have yielded a tad under 4 per cent to investors.

The unemployment rate is 4.8 per cent, the third lowest in the European Union and – whisper it in case you offend the Remainers – at least 49,000 jobs have been created since the Brexit vote.

In case you wondered France, which regular lectures the UK, has an unemployment rate of 10.5 per cent.

So we are not doing badly for an economy that nearly every “expert” from the public and private sectors including the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the governor of the Bank of England predicted would “tank” if the public dared to vote with their hearts and opt to leave the EU.

At this point I must reach for my Beatles collection and quote from John Lennon’s 'I am the Walrus': “Expert, texpert choking smokers, don't you think the joker laughs at you”.

I don’t think the public would mind so much if it were not for the fact that the experts who regularly lecture them on the television are paid vast sums yet do not seem to understand their own economy.

In fact it feels as at times as though they are making it up as they go along. Perhaps they are.

Take Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s comments to the Treasury Committee last month: “The thing about forward guidance is that it is guidance that is forward. Which is not to say it is meant to be in any way accurate. 

“Indeed, it would be surprising if it were. The most important thing about forward guidance is that the underlying economic determinants should be correct, not that it should be helpful.”

Not helpful and not in any way accurate. So what, pray, is the point at all?

The question we are all asking is what happens from here? 

There will undoubtedly be bumpy periods ahead as we trigger Article 50 and endure the painful Brexit negotiations.

Investors will at times be panicked by news stories and headlines. But snap decisions sparked by rent-a-quote economists and other experts desperate for a few seconds on the six o’clock news could have a lasting impact on pensions and other investments.

Calm heads and solid financial advice must counterbalance this. Investors must be encouraged not to jeopardise their life savings because an economist with a political and personal agenda seeks to undermine the will of the British people.

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High earners need to pay their fair share

One often overlooked fact when criticising high earners is the tax contribution they can make. A study produced by PwC for the City of London Corporation suggests that employment taxes per employee in the financial sector average £32,000.

Employment taxes make up half the £3.4bn contributed in taxes by the banking sector last year.

Of course without tax-dodging schemes these figures would undoubtedly be even higher.

But those who work in the financial sector are not alone in seeking to minimise tax. And I find it more abhorrent when, as recently, I read of footballers and celebrities doing all they can to avoid taxes.

They have become super-wealthy from the money contributed by ordinary people through television subscriptions, merchandise and tickets.

Is it too much to expect them to hand some back in taxes which might benefit the people who have put them where they are today?

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Prudential’s potential annuity sale is bad news

Prudential’s decision to seek a buyer for its annuity business is bad news for advisers and investors. Bringing a third party into the equation is only likely to cause administrative problems.

It may make business sense for the Pru but it is a questionable decision morally.

Pru has sold the pensions and, while an annuity may not be the product of choice for most, it should take responsibility and be willing to provide one where it is desired or needed.