PensionsSep 11 2019

Suspend your disbelief

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When it comes to drama, the UK government currently has it all – the suspension of parliament itself, defecting MPs, rebellions, removal of the Conservative Party whip, the likelihood of a general election in October, and all without any tangible progress on Brexit more than three years after the UK voted for it.

What had been billed by now Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other Leave campaigners as a move that would be good for the UK, would give £350m a week to the NHS, and with both Liam Fox and David Davis claiming doing trade deals with the EU after leaving would be easy, is not turning out to be such a cake walk.

In fact, Mr Fox went further, telling the BBC that the post-Brexit trade deal with the EU should be “one of the easiest in human history”. As it turns out, leaving Europe at all is proving remarkably problematic.

No matter which side of the Brexit debate you are on, the moves by government to take back control of the process after Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament from September 9 until October 14 are a fascinating development, simply history in action.

The hope for everyone is that at some point, the Brexit uncertainty will come to an end one way or another

The defection of Conservative Philip Lee to the Liberal Democrats, prompting consternation from LGBT+ supporters in that party thanks to his voting record, means the government no longer has a majority in the House.

As I write this, the prime minister has said he will table a motion to call a snap general election, which would happen on October 14 given the required timetable. Is it a move he wants to make?

Not according to his exclamations in parliament on Tuesday last week, but it is one he is being forced into.

The hope for everyone is that at some point, the Brexit uncertainty will come to an end one way or another.

For more than three years, the government has been talking about little else, meaning many of the more ‘mundane’ matters of running the country that need to be discussed and legislated on have been pushed aside, as time is given to the ongoing arguments for and against Brexit.

There has been no effort to compromise on the issue, to work towards a solution that gives hardline Brexiteers some of what they want but not all, and hardline Remainers some of what they want, but similarly not all.

The trouble with the UK’s political landscape currently is its polemic nature.

In other less fraught and more amenable times, the aim of politics was to discuss, debate and come to an agreement that gave the best possible outcome for all involved.

It requires give and take on both sides, not an increasingly entrenched point of view that results in no one getting anything they want.

However, we live in strange political times.

US President Donald Trump, for example, regularly picks fights on Twitter with those he disagrees with, and the associated name calling has become de rigeur.

As a result, we became desensitised over time to these methods, which if they were applied to children in a playground would result in a visit to the head’s office for a detention as a minimum.

There were lies and exaggerations on both sides of the Brexit argument in the referendum, which left most of us in the dark as to what leaving the EU would really mean.

But there can be no doubt that when we were voting, none of us had the intention that it would leave the UK weaker, more exposed to ridicule and more importantly, potentially without the ability to engage in free trade in some format with our biggest trading partner, the EU.

Already we have seen one quarter of falling GDP. Another at the end of this quarter would mean we are officially in recession, but we will only know that for sure when we see the figures at the end of September.

By the time they are out, we will have probably had the general election and may well be asking for a further extension to Article 50, while whoever is in power then attempts to sort out some kind of plan for progress.

Or we will be heading out of the EU on October 31, deal or no deal.

One thing is for sure, the ongoing uncertainty is not helping businesses, investors or advisers.

The lack of clear direction means it is near impossible to tell people what to do for the best – the answer is we simply do not know yet.

In fact, we do not even know when we will know, and therein lies the biggest problem.

The chances of having a majority government after another election feel pretty slim in the current climate, as the divisions in the country run as deep as they do in parliament.

But surely it is now time to work towards a ‘best case’ solution, rather than the win-versus-lose solution that is currently being sought.

The referendum was a democratic vote that should be honoured, but there is no getting away from the fact that the vote was based on a campaign of misinformation and scaremongering.

The ability to progress in this is more about understanding and appreciating a different point of view with far less aggression.

There is no right or wrong here, just different.

Yet while our polemic politics continue, there is a real risk we could be in this unhelpful and paralysing limbo for some time to come.

Alison Steed is a freelance journalist