Jeff PrestridgeOct 16 2019

What should Woodford do?

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Although some financial advisers loyal to Neil Woodford continue to defend these fees, I have yet to be contacted by a Woodford investor who agrees.

As the weeks go by, the nights draw in and leaves turn an autumnal gold, the anger of Equity Income investors rises a notch or three.

Especially when the fund’s value continues to shrink (now below £3bn, compared to £10bn in early 2017) and the fund’s losses continue.

Over the past three months, six months and year, the fund has suffered respective losses of 15 per cent, 27 per cent and 32 per cent.

Since launch in June 2014, overall losses are heading towards 20 per cent – the same figure for losses since dealings were abruptly halted in June.

There is now a good chance that the fund will not reopen its door in December as previously intimated – we may find out a bit more on this when Link, the fund’s overseer, provides its fifth monthly update on October 21.

Indeed, some experts say it could be June next year before investors are given the chance to liquidate their Equity Income holdings and move on with their investments.  If so, that would mean a year of being trapped, of seeing their investment holdings shrink in value, and not being able to do anything about it but weep into their comforting bowls of Shredded Wheat.

Whatever some financial advisers may say, I have no axe to grind with Mr Woodford.

He has shown his prowess as an investment manager before – and his ability to get out of a pickle. Remember the 1990s when he was criticised for not participating in the scramble for technology shares, only to come good when the bubble burst and his more cautious approach prevailed and triumphed in the early 2000s.

So, yes, it is possible he may get out of the current mess that has spread to his two other investment vehicles – investment trust Patient Capital (now a near basket case) and Income Focus (which has halved in value since Equity Income was suspended in June).

Yet with every day that passes and every leaf that falls gently to the ground, I fear the hole that WIM has dug for itself is becoming too deep for Mr Woodford to climb out of.

Like many of his investors, he is trapped.

Refusing to speak to the press has not helped his cause (even when people like myself came knocking at his business door).

Nor has his refusal to waive the fees (or a slice of the fees) on Equity Income while investors have remained trapped inside the fund.

A reduction in fees, I am sure, would have temporarily appeased many investors.

He has also done some silly things, none more so crazy than his decision in July to sell £1.75m of personal shares in Patient Capital to pay a tax bill.

This was a decision taken without first informing the trust’s board as he should have done. What signal did that send out to shareholders? It is hardly a vote of confidence in the trust’s future. No wonder the board now seems keen to replace Woodford at Patient Capital’s helm.

What I find difficult to fathom is what is happening at Equity Income while its doors remain shut. According to Mr Woodford’s public relations advisers, Equity Income is being derisked. This is happening through the selling of illiquid stocks with the proceeds being reinvested in FTSE 100 companies. The aim is to turn Equity Income into a fund made up of undervalued companies drawn from the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices (Woodford à la late 1990s).

That is fine and dandy up to a point.

But it is not a portfolio makeover designed to deal with a run on the fund that will inevitably occur when it eventually opens its doors to business again.

No, it is a portfolio overhaul done in the hope that by the time the fund reopens, there will be no mass walk out. Redemptions will resemble a dribble rather than a flood.

It all seems like a big gamble because if a majority of Equity Income investors want out when it reopens, Woodford will have no choice but to offload many of the undervalued companies he bought.

Not on his terms – when undervalued stocks become fairly valued – but on the terms set by the market prevailing at the time.

Surely, what Mr Woodford should be doing instead is building a cash pile in advance of the fund reopening. A cash mountain that can then be used to meet the inevitable wave of redemptions.

It is what property funds did in the wake of the Brexit vote in June 2016 when they could not meet demand from investors wanting out.

Like Mr Woodford, they gated their funds, but then sold some of their property assets to free up cash to meet redemptions when the funds’ doors were reopened.

As I have said already, maybe Mr Woodford will somehow extract Equity Income from the unholy mess it is mired in.

But I smell impending disaster – indeed, some experts now believe it is time for Mr Woodford to liquidate all three of his funds and return the cash to investors. Time will tell.

Jeff Prestridge is personal finance editor of the Mail on Sunday

Editor's note: this column was written before it was announced that Woodford Investment Management was to close