Expectations low for Cop27 conference

Readers will recall that the conference, which took place against a backdrop of continued Covid restrictions, eventually produced an agreement called the Glasgow Climate Pact, which was adopted by the 120 world leaders who attended.

Those not attending (perhaps due to Covid restrictions) included Russia and Iran, while China’s Xi Jinping did not travel but he did join via video link. The pact aims to turn the 2020s into a decade of climate action and support. 

Cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are still seen as far from where they need to be to preserve a liveable climate, and support for the most vulnerable countries affected by the effects of climate change is still falling far short.

There was some disappointment at what was achieved in Glasgow and the level of ongoing commitment.

Nevertheless, Cop 26 did produce new 'building blocks' to advance implementation of the Paris Agreement through actions that can get the world on a more sustainable, low-carbon pathway forward.

The package of decisions agreed in Glasgow included greater efforts to build resilience to climate change, to curb greenhouse gas emissions and to provide the necessary finance for both. Nations reaffirmed their duty to fulfil the pledge of providing $100bn (£89bn) annually from developed to developing countries.

They also agreed to work to reduce the gap between existing emission reduction plans and what is required to reduce emissions, so that the rise in the global average temperature can be limited to 1.5 degrees.

For the first time, nations are called upon to phase down unabated coal power and inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels.

Not all roses

However, there was some disappointment at what was achieved in Glasgow and the level of ongoing commitment. “The approved texts are a compromise,” said UN zecretary-general António Guterres at the time. 

“They reflect the interests, the conditions, the contradictions, and the state of political will in the world today. They take important steps, but unfortunately the collective political will was not enough to overcome some deep contradictions.”

That 'collective political will' has been severely tested since the Cop26 text was approved. Against the backdrop of an existing energy crisis, economies around the world have stalled, with many nations still dealing with the fallout from the pandemic.

Our expectations for the conference are not high. The response of many Cop participants has been weak.

Never one to waste a crisis, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February of this year, sparking a war that still rages.

Partly in response to sanctions imposed by Western governments, Russia highlighted Europe’s dependence on Russian gas by turning off the taps at its Nord Stream pipeline, leading to a gas crisis and concerns that gas prices might work against companies and governments delivering green policies in time for Cop27.

Cop27, which kicks off this weekend in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). It is seen by some as an 'African Cop', taking place on the continent most affected by climate change.

Low expectations

So, what progress can we hope for and what might we actually expect in Sharm El-Sheikh?

Just getting world leaders around a table will be a positive step and we can hope for positive engagement with and between China, the US and India – the world’s largest carbon emitters.

We will also look for progress on the themes summarised above, more specifically renewing commitments to meeting 2030 climate targets, and actually delivering greater financial support from rich countries to help those in the developing world, who have contributed least to global warming.

In reality, after such a difficult year, our expectations for the conference are not high. The response of many Cop participants has been weak, with resource-rich Australia being the only country to increase its climate commitments in 2022.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the international reaction to it have damaged institutions like the G20, of which Russia was formerly a member. China seems less globally co-operative than it was a year ago.

It is essential for there to be continued political will to see through on promises made under the limelight.

Under pressure from voters, some Western governments worry that the energy crisis has added costs to the green transition, with G7 nations accused of backsliding on climate goals over energy security fears. For example, Germany has said it will restart mothballed coal-fired power stations, in order to keep the lights on this winter.

Since Cop26 ended, Britain has held the Presidency of Cop, until this weekend, when the baton passes to Egypt. Under this presidency, it has been the UK’s responsibility to speed up action on climate and help deliver on four key goals. 

Given the gravity of the climate crisis and the need to see through our Cop26 commitments, we are pleased to learn that the prime minister will in fact attend Cop27. This is significant.

For initiatives such as Cop27 to bring about meaningful change, it is essential for there to be continued political will to see through on promises made under the limelight once the bunting has come down and conference stands have been dismantled.

David Gorman is partner, investment management, at Castlefield