I have. I was encouraged to do so by one of the counsellors at church and it kept me occupied for a few weeks.
Until I discovered something I liked writing a whole lot more.
Lists.
Specifically, lists of things that annoy me. Lists of stupid things people do. Lists of things people say that make me laugh. I appear on my own lists quite a lot, perhaps unsurprisingly. The first two in particular.
Of late I have been compiling a list of Very Bad Things.
The list is growing every day and it charts certain facts, figures and statistics that point to the reality of the situation in which the economy, and the everyday man and woman, will end up.
Bonner is so downbeat he makes Hendry look like Gladys Aylward.The list is pretty bleak, but writing it has proved quite cathartic in a way. I suppose if you knew you only had a few weeks left to live, it would allow you to focus on either finding a solution or living it up on Bora Bora.
Just so, my list of Very Bad Things allows me to speak to experts and commentators and read up on what their suggestions are to help mitigate the effect of these prognoses of gloom.
It has also opened my eyes to the reality that things could be so, so much worse.
Yes, I admire contrarian views. Contrarian investors often have salient points to make.
My favourite contrarian always used to be Hugh Hendry, formerly of Odey Asset Management (which has been in the news a bit recently), and latterly of Eclectica Macro. He is now a luxury hotelier, surfer and finfluencer.
But he has been replaced by American investor Bill Bonner in my list of people who are ultra-contrarian.
Bonner is so downbeat he makes Hendry look like Gladys Aylward, marching triumphantly over the mountains with 100 singing orphans in tow.
In his most recent video missive, he presents an apocalyptic scenario for America should the energy crisis escalate unmanageably, with civilisation as we know it ending within weeks.
Well that’s cheery – at least it would last longer than most people have been chancellor of the exchequer this year.
Anyway, on to the list – and do feel free to share your own doom-mongery thoughts with me. Misery loves company.
1) The Office for National Statistics has reported a sharp rise in insolvencies.
2) There has been a drop in the number of non-doms: Research from RIFT Tax Refunds has revealed the decline in the level of UK non-domiciled taxpayers spurred by the EU referendum, as well as a raft of tax-related changes concerning non-doms, has resulted in a 10.7 per cent annual drop in non-dom numbers, down 44.5 per cent since the 2015 peak.
3) Personal debt is rising. According to UK Finance, the credit card and personal loan sectors together reported new business up by 15 per cent in August compared with the same month in 2021.
4) Further bank closures have been announced just as people are reporting higher levels of financial vulnerability, with NatWest closing 43 branches across the UK.
5) Brokers have warned of a rise in repossessions. Lewis Shaw, founder of Shaw Financial Services, said: “I’ve been told by an insider at one of the UK’s leading high street lenders that they’re gearing up for a significant rise in repossessions, arrears and defaults over the next 24 months.”
6) The Bank of England has predicted inflationary pressures will be “more persistent” than expected.
7) Jeremy Hunt is now chancellor and a daily newspaper is having a running bet on whether a lettuce can outlast the current Prime Minister Liz Truss.
8) Research by property purchasing specialist, House Buyer Bureau, has revealed that 55 per cent of estate agents are worried about the current outlook for the UK property market, as FTAdviser has reported.
9) China’s president Xi Jinping has taken an unprecedented third term in office, potentially setting the country on a path diverging further away from democracy and towards dictatorship.
10) Putin seems to be getting desperate and desperate people do devastating things.
11) Between April 2021 and March 2022, food banks in the Trussell Trust network provided more than 2.1mn parcels to people facing financial hardship. The charity has warned this figure is growing every month as the cost of living crisis bites harder.
12) While still one of the 25 wealthiest countries in the world, in September, Britain dropped behind India to become the world’s sixth largest economy.
13) New data from HyperJar reveals that 1 in 4 millennials’ biggest debt comes from buy now, pay later schemes.
I’m sure there are more indicators that suggest being heavily aligned to the domestic economy is a pretty tough call right now – so please send me your thoughts and I’ll add them to my list of Very Bad Things.
simoney.kyriakou@ft.com
