Multi-managerJul 15 2013

Fund Selector: Time to go cold turkey?

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Dear Market, it is with great regret that I have to write this letter, but having carefully studied your behaviour in the past few years I felt compelled to highlight my concerns to you.

I fear you have been afflicted with addiction of late. It all started back in 2008 when things got pretty scary for a while and it is understandable that you felt the need to reach out for help.

You were desperate, after all, and the cheap money offered up by governments via their monetary authorities was the essential tonic to help you through this dark period.

However, we are nearly five years on and you convulse at the merest hint of any form of stimulus withdrawal even though Mr Bernanke is not suggesting you go cold turkey but rather are weaned off easy money.

Mr Bernanke is not the only ‘peddler’ in town, though, and you may be led astray by Messrs Draghi, Carney and Kuroda who are equally well placed to satisfy your cravings.

The trouble is, you see, as with so many addictions, your behaviour has far reaching consequences whose effects go well beyond your immediate surroundings, and your tendency to overact is actually making the situation much worse and hampering economic recovery.

Witness the recent rise in interest rates, with government bond yields rising by roughly a percentage point. Fundamental analysis of investment opportunities has all but gone out the window.

Talk of the Federal Reserve cutting quantitative easing (QE) has been prompted by improving growth indicators in the US. This is ultimately a positive – a strong US economy will have a positive impact on global growth.

I urge you to seek help for your problem immediately, and although the road to sobriety will be a hard one, I can guarantee you it will involve one key element.

Taking a longer term view and extricating yourself from the daily noise of markets will lessen your dependence on unhealthy substances and reduce stress considerably.

You will not only be helping yourself, but also the global economy, encouraging financial stability worldwide.

Graham Duce is co-head of multi-manager funds at Aberdeen Asset Management