EconomyNov 15 2016

Inflation sees surprise fall in October

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Inflation sees surprise fall in October

Consumer prices index (CPI) inflation reached 0.9 per cent in October - a surprise fall from September's 1 per cent figure - after a drop in core inflation overwhelmed a sterling-induced rise in other prices.

But the Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that even though the 0.9 per cent figure was down on September's level, it was still materially higher than price increase levels seen since 2014.

September's figure was the highest level of inflation in 22 months, but forecasts had predicted a 1.1 per cent CPI rise in October.

However, the ONS said clothing and university tuition fees acted as a drag on price increases.

According to Pantheon Economics, the lower-than-expected figure did not imply the link between a weaker sterling and higher inflation had loosened.

Chief UK economist Samuel Tombs said: "October’s drop was driven by a fall in clothing inflation to -0.7 per cent, from September’s 1.1 per cent rate, which had been boosted by a one-off period of discounting by apparel retailers in September 2015."

ONS figures showed that the biggest factor in October's 12-month figure came from transport, which overcame a 0.4 per cent fall in 2015 to rise by over 0.3 per cent last month. Fuel inflation fell back, however.

Despite the surprise fall, economists and commentators suggested UK inflation will regain its upward trajectory shortly, with previous fuel and food price falls dropping out of the 12-month window.

Mr Tombs added: "Thereafter, sterling’s depreciation will begin to push inflation up sharply, utility companies will respond to the recent rise in wholesale energy prices by lifting consumer tariffs, and services inflation likely will continue to grind higher as firms grapple with big increases in minimum wages.

"We still expect CPI inflation to peak at about 3.5% by the end of 2017, crippling consumers and preventing the Monetary Policy Committee from announcing more stimulus."

Investec Wealth and Investment bond strategist Shilen Shah added: "The underlying inflation story still remains, with both the November manufacturing and service Purchasing Managers Index prints indicating further upward pressure on CPI is likely in 2017."

Inflation levels have drifted closer to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target in recent months, rising from 0.3 per cent in May to 0.6 per cent in July and 1 per cent in September.