Brexit or the Bank of England: what's driving long-term fixes?

"However, it is certainly not the only reason. The recent rate rise might be a return to the previous 0.5 per cent level, but it is likely to be a wake-up call for those borrowers who have not fixed their rates  yet for the future, and the prospect of a further, inevitable, rise down the line could be influencing these borrowers to choose to fix for the longer-term."

Bank of England

Some commentators have branded Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, as the 'unreliable boyfriend'.

This is as a result of his comments about what confluence of events (such as house price moves, wage growth and unemployment) might trigger interest rate rises, and the lack of such rises once these events have transpired.

Because the anticipated bank base rate rises have not taken place, therefore the mortgage market has not been quick to launch higher-than-average rates into the market place.

Jaedon Green, director of product and distribution for Leeds Building Society, explains: "All mortgage rates are priced based on what the market expects the rate (the Swap rate) to be over that period, and the bank base rate is only one factor."

He points out rates started to rise from the middle of September 2017 when Mr Carney first indicated a possible increase to the base rate, so by and large, the market had already priced in November's 0.25 percentage point rise back to 0.5 per cent and some lenders had in fact raised some mortgage rates before the rate increase in November.

So movements in the bank base rate are a moveable feast, depending on the economic outlook and the mood at the monetary policy committee meetings.

As Mr Green states: "The governor has signalled two more rises in the next three years, based on current projection, but this may change."

Because what Mr Carney has said might not actually come to pass, anyone making a decision to invest in cash, buy a property, take out a mortgage or delay a financial decision based on what Mr Carney has suggested, might not be making the best possible decisions for their circumstances.

Adrian Anderson, director of broker Anderson Harris, opines: "What has become clear over the past few years is whoever bases their mortgage decisions on what Mr Carney says is not being very sensible."

There will be customers who are attracted by the certainty that comes with fixing their mortgage payments for the long-term. Jeremy Duncombe

However, despite Mr Carney's reputation as an unreliable lover, the fact remains base rates have been low since March 2009 and eventually what goes down must also, eventually, go up; it's a question of when, not if.