Well, who would have thought it? Theresa May, the PM who consistently said there was not going to be a general election before 2020, has...er…called a general election for June 8.
All right, so we have all read or heard her reasoning on the news – she wanted to ensure stability for the negotiations to leave Europe and the only way to do that was to have a general election to – of course I am paraphrasing – get everyone on board. The country was, apparently, coming together while Westminster was not.
Funny really, I cannot see any reason why those who are looking to scrutinise the process in great detail because they do not necessarily agree with it, such as some Conservative MPs, Labour MPs, the Liberal Democrats for sure, and most definitely the SNP, will suddenly change tack because of a general election, no matter what the result.
Mrs May is ‘assuming’ she will strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations with an electionIt will be interesting to see what happens. After all, Mrs May is ‘assuming’ she will strengthen her hand in the negotiations with an election, but after the shock results in the referendum itself, and the last general election in which the Tories were not expected to get a majority, she is certainly taking a risk. What if she was to lose her seat? Most unlikely, but you never know. Or Labour was voted in instead? Again, not that likely, but given the referendum vote was for many people a vote against the incumbent administration as much as against being in Europe, that is always a possibility.
Do not forget the Liberal Democrats either – yes, nine seats in the Commons is a massive hit from being in a coalition government before the last election. But since they are going to be fighting the election on a ticket that would ‘avoid a disastrous hard Brexit’, according to leader Tim Farron, they could gain many more seats as a backlash from the 48 per cent who voted to stay in the EU in the referendum.
The thing with elections, and pollsters, as we have learned in recent history, is that until all the votes are counted, no-one knows what the result is going to be. Or what that result is going to mean for the country. Most people did not think for a second that we would really vote against EU membership in the referendum – the evidence for this is clear, as even those who campaigned for us to leave the EU were lost for words, focus and direction the day after because the result we got had apparently been so unlikely.
So, are we going to see Theresa May making a similar mistake to David Cameron? Gambling the UK’s stability and security on a decision to ‘ask the people’ what they think is best, only to find that the people respond emphatically ‘not you’?
The PM made the point when she announced the snap election that she needed to do this to ensure that the trickiest part of the negotiations – set to happen as we neared the next planned general election in 2020 – had a firm foundation on which to be based. Really? Or was it more to do with the fact that if these negotiations turn into a dog’s dinner there was not a hope that the Conservatives would retain power at that stage? You can make your own mind up on that one.
The fact that we have a Labour opposition in a state of disarray, the Lib Dems have so few seats in the Commons they are not seen as a credible threat, and the timing is pretty good for a strong Conservative showing, may have more to do with it. But only the PM knows for sure, and rarely is there only one reason to do anything.
However, while stability in the Brexit negotiations is a necessity, the spectre of a snap election means there is short-term volatility for the markets. The FTSE 100 has fallen from 7300 on the day the PM announced plans for the snap election, to 7104 at the time of writing. Experts expected volatility in the markets – they do not like surprises after all.
Richard Stone, chief executive of The Share Centre, said markets “appeared to react badly” to the news, but the pound rallied strongly, which will have had at least some impact on the market falls. On the day Mrs May announced her intention to go to the polls, the pound was at €1.17, and at the time of writing, it was above €1.19. The short-term volatility may be worth it if Theresa May is right in her calculations that she will be returned with a big majority, her own manifesto to work to, and as a result a firm basis for the Brexit talks.
However, elections have had a habit of springing surprises in recent years, so we will have to wait and see whether the country is more or less stable once the results are in.
Alison Steed is a freelance journalist
